| 摘要 | Key Points
While Kuwait has been an important partner in the ongoing mediation efforts to end the current Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) crisis, its efforts have not produced a viable solution all sides can agree on.
Qatar has been able to fare better in this crisis than its GCC neighbors expected due to its unique economic position to punch above its geopolitical weight. This has allowed Doha, even in an existential crisis in which Saudi Arabia and five other states sought to force it into submission, to foil the designs of its Gulf neighbors.
US presidential leadership is required if the crisis is to be brought to a resolution. To begin, all parties would need to agree to a common set of principles, which Washington can and should help facilitate.
Read the full PDF.
Introduction
Nearly three months have passed in the cold conflict between Qatar and its neighbors, yet a resolution remains elusive. On September 8, President Donald Trump took a direct approach toward mediating this crisis by brokering a phone conversation between the Qatari emir and the Saudi crown prince.1 This was the first phone conversation between the two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders since the crisis erupted.
Initially, the prospects for an agreement looked promising. Both leaders agreed to dialogue through their representatives, with each side proclaiming to be open to a resolution after months of rhetoric and stalled negotiations. However, these promising developments collapsed within an hour. Riyadh suspended talks and accused Doha of misrepresenting the nature of the phone call by implying that Saudi Arabia had sought dialogue with Qatar without first meeting the original conditions put forth by Riyadh and its allies for negotiations.
President Trump’s brief attempt to facilitate a dialogue was ultimately tabled by competing sets of egos arguing over who made the first concession. It remains unclear whether there is political will to negotiate beyond paying lip service to Trump, whose initial response in June was to side with Saudi Arabia and its allies, even though his administration chartered a more balanced approach.
This breakthrough, although short-lived, shows that when the president is engaged and pushes for negotiations, dialogue is possible. This is markedly different from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s initiatives to begin face-to-face discussions, which have been ineffective in getting both sides to the table.
Moving forward, optimism that this conflict can be resolved is misplaced. The GCC states’ current actions suggest that further escalation is likely. Sheikh Abdullah bin Ali Al Thani’s recent promotion as an alternative leader for Qatar underscores this. Saudi Arabia’s public campaign to delegitimize the emir of Qatar and encourage popular regime change, instead of letting the crisis turn into a cold stalemate, shows there is little to no political will in Abu Dhabi or Riyadh to pursue a constructive settlement without greater American pressure. Furthermore, the promotion of Khaldi Al Hail, a Qatari-Egyptian businessman in London, as a legitimate opposition figure to the emir,2 illustrates this even more.
The Kuwait-led mediation process in its current form is a nonviable path to resolving a worsening conflict, which has negative implications for US interests and President Trump’s Middle East policies. Divisions in the GCC only hamper American efforts to push back against Iran and confront radical extremist groups such as ISIS, a fact that President Trump noted in his remarks on September 7 with the Kuwaiti emir while raising terror finance concerns.3 Washington has substantial military basing in both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as economic ties to the entire Gulf. A fractured GCC allows America’s adversaries, notably Russia and Iran, to expand their influence to the detriment of US interests.
Heightened American engagement is needed to resolve this conflict. The status quo appears to be headed toward an increasingly escalatory path, which is unacceptable to the US given its political, economic, and security interests in the region.
Based on several visits to the GCC and consultations with senior policymakers, this report first explores the Gulf States’ perspectives regarding the crisis. It then examines the economic dynamics that have shaped the conflict, reviews American policy since the blockade, and finally offers recommendations for a path toward resolution.
Read the full report.
Notes |
