| 来源类型 | Report
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| Estonia: Potential vulnerabilities amid progress |
| Agnia Grigas
|
| 发表日期 | 2017-12-18
|
| 出版年 | 2017
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Key Points
All three Baltic States have been consistently targeted by Moscow’s compatriot policies, information warfare, and various forms of military intimidation.
There is an ever-present risk that Russia will try to use the Baltic States’ sizable ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority to advance its foreign policy and potentially even territorial ambitions by subverting local governance and exacerbating internal political and social rifts.
Estonia and its allies would do well to deter and prepare for Russia’s hard offenses while mitigating and neutralizing its softer efforts at destabilization.
Read the full PDF.
Introduction
Since the 1990s and particularly since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, all three Baltic States have been consistently targeted by Moscow’s compatriot policies, information warfare, and various forms of military intimidation. Estonia’s vulnerabilities and fissures vis-à-vis potential Russian aggression can be assessed through four categories of analysis: (1) social and ethnic tensions stemming from the presence of its Russian-speaking minority, (2) the risks emanating from the country’s domestic political environment, (3) economic and energy liabilities, and (4) its exposure to broader geostrategic and security threats.
Moscow’s view of the Baltic States is complex. On the one hand, it views them as part of its sphere of influence, despite their NATO and EU membership. For instance, in 2008 President Dmitry Medvedev asserted Russia’s right to “privileged interests” in its neighboring states and “certainly the regions bordering [Russia].”1 On the other hand, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are treated distinctly by Russia compared to former member states of the Soviet Union because the West never recognized their annexation by the Soviet Union and because since reestablishing independence in 1991 they have carved out their own geopolitical destiny by joining the EU and NATO in 2004.
Yet unlike other new EU and NATO members, the Baltic States are vulnerable to Russia’s policies of “compatriot protection” because of their sizable ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority, residing mostly in areas bordering the Russian Federation. As I have recently argued,2 there is an ever-present risk that Russia will try to use this minority to advance its foreign policy and potentially even territorial ambitions by subverting local governance and exacerbating internal political and social rifts.3
Read the full report.
Notes |
| 主题 | Europe and Eurasia
|
| 标签 | Baltic States
; Estonia
; NATO
; Recovering the Empire
; Russia
|
| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/estonia-potential-vulnerabilities-amid-progress/
|
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/206491
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Agnia Grigas. Estonia: Potential vulnerabilities amid progress. 2017.
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文件名：
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Estonia-Potential-Vulnerabilities-amid-Progress.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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