| 摘要 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In 2015, Lumina Foundation introduced the Rule of Ten, a new method for assessing college affordability for students in the U.S. The rule rests on the assumption that an “affordable” cost for college should not exceed the total of: (1) what a student and his family can save by putting away 10% of their income for the 10 years before enrollment; and (2) a student’s earnings, working 10 hours per week while in college.
In 2017, we published a report comparing actual student expenses in 2011–12, based on data from the U.S. Department of Education’s National Postsecondary Student Aid Survey (NPSAS), with those recommended by the Rule of Ten. We found that college exceeded the Rule of Ten’s recommended level for most students in the U.S.; that expenses over the rule’s affordability ceiling were paid for by students’ part-time earnings as well as by debt; and that students from the wealthiest households disproportionately attended the highest-cost institutions and amassed the most debt.
This paper updates our earlier analysis with the most recent NPSAS data. We find that, in 2015–16, students from the wealthiest households continued to attend the priciest institutions and continued to take on the most debt. This suggests that many students prefer higher short-run costs in exchange for higher expected long-run returns (often in the form of better-paying jobs). Thus, efforts to assess college affordability that ignore long-run returns and focus exclusively on short-run costs paint an incomplete picture of the value delivered to students.
Other findings include:
In 2015 –16, students seeking bachelor’s degrees faced an average net cost, including living expenses, of about $85,000 for the entirety of their degrees—or about $6,000 more than in 2011–12.
In 2015 –16, students seeking associate’s degrees faced an average net cost for their degrees of about $22,000—essentially unchanged from 2011–12.
In 2015–16, students from households in the highest income quartile (those with incomes above $120,000) borrowed about $10,500 more than students from households in the lowest income quartile (those with incomes below $30,000). In 2011–12, the borrowing gap was $7,500.
Between 2011–12 and 2015–16, college became slightly more affordable, as measured by the Rule of Ten, for students seeking bachelor’s degrees as well as associate’s degrees.
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