G2TT
来源类型Report
规范类型报告
China’s demographic outlook to 2040 and its implications: An overview
Nicholas Eberstadt
发表日期2019-01-22
出版年2019
语种英语
摘要Key Points We already have a fairly reliable picture of China’s population profile for the year 2040 because the overwhelming majority of people who will be living in China in 2040 are already alive and living there today. China’s population is on track to peak in the coming decade and to decline at an accelerating tempo thereafter. China is set to experience an extraordinarily rapid surge of population aging, with especially explosive population growth for the 65-plus group, even as its working-age population progressively shrinks. These trends can only make for serious economic headwinds, presaging the end of China’s era of “heroic economic growth.” Introduction For any serious attempt to assess China’s future outlook, an examination of the country’s population prospects is not only advisable but absolutely indispensable. There are two reasons for this. First, of all areas of inquiry about China’s future that might be of interest in academic, business, and policy circles, China’s demographic future is perhaps the least uncertain over the coming generation. The reason, quite simply, is that the overwhelming majority of the people who will be living in China in (say) the year 2040 are already alive, living there today. Population projections are far from error-free, but if we are trying to peer ahead a couple of decades, they are most assuredly more reliable (and empirically grounded) than corresponding projections of economic change, much less political or technological change.1 Second, demographics and demographic change actually matter—to economic performance and social development and in some measure arguably to such things as military potential, political stability, and international security. This is not to invoke the “demography is destiny” claim, often attributed to the 19th-century French polymath Auguste Comte. A less florid, more immediately defensible reformulation of that aphorism would be that “demographics slowly but unforgivingly alter the realm of the possible.” In the following pages, I try to show just how the realm of the possible is being reshaped in China by impending demographic changes over the decades immediately ahead. Read the full report. Notes
主题Asia
标签China ; Chinese economy ; chinese stagnation ; Demographic change ; Demographics ; depopulation ; population ; population control ; Population growth
URLhttps://www.aei.org/research-products/report/chinas-demographic-outlook-to-2040-and-its-implications-an-overview/
来源智库American Enterprise Institute (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/206631
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Nicholas Eberstadt. China’s demographic outlook to 2040 and its implications: An overview. 2019.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
China’s-Demographic-(7470KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Nicholas Eberstadt]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Nicholas Eberstadt]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Nicholas Eberstadt]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: China’s-Demographic-Outlook.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。