| 来源类型 | Report
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| China’s demographic outlook to 2040 and its implications: An overview |
| Nicholas Eberstadt
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| 发表日期 | 2019-01-22
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| 出版年 | 2019
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Key Points
We already have a fairly reliable picture of China’s population profile for the year 2040 because the overwhelming majority of people who will be living in China in 2040 are already alive and living there today.
China’s population is on track to peak in the coming decade and to decline at an accelerating tempo thereafter.
China is set to experience an extraordinarily rapid surge of population aging, with especially explosive population growth for the 65-plus group, even as its working-age population progressively shrinks.
These trends can only make for serious economic headwinds, presaging the end of China’s era of “heroic economic growth.”
Introduction
For any serious attempt to assess China’s future outlook, an examination of the country’s population prospects is not only advisable but absolutely indispensable. There are two reasons for this.
First, of all areas of inquiry about China’s future that might be of interest in academic, business, and policy circles, China’s demographic future is perhaps the least uncertain over the coming generation. The reason, quite simply, is that the overwhelming majority of the people who will be living in China in (say) the year 2040 are already alive, living there today. Population projections are far from error-free, but if we are trying to peer ahead a couple of decades, they are most assuredly more reliable (and empirically grounded) than corresponding projections of economic change, much less political or technological change.1
Second, demographics and demographic change actually matter—to economic performance and social development and in some measure arguably to such things as military potential, political stability, and international security. This is not to invoke the “demography is destiny” claim, often attributed to the 19th-century French polymath Auguste Comte. A less florid, more immediately defensible reformulation of that aphorism would be that “demographics slowly but unforgivingly alter the realm of the possible.” In the following pages, I try to show just how the realm of the possible is being reshaped in China by impending demographic changes over the decades immediately ahead.
Read the full report.
Notes |
| 主题 | Asia
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| 标签 | China
; Chinese economy
; chinese stagnation
; Demographic change
; Demographics
; depopulation
; population
; population control
; Population growth
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| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/chinas-demographic-outlook-to-2040-and-its-implications-an-overview/
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| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/206631
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Nicholas Eberstadt. China’s demographic outlook to 2040 and its implications: An overview. 2019.
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文件名：
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China’s-Demographic-Outlook.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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