| 摘要 | In the May issue of AEI’s Political Report, we look at the high early interest in and enthusiasm about the 2020 presidential election and at some initial impressions of the contenders. With a 40-year age difference between the oldest and youngest 2020 candidates, we also review surveys from the current and previous election cycles about the ages of presidential hopefuls.
Early indications of 2020 engagement
In an April Fox News poll, 52 percent of registered voters said they were extremely interested in the 2020 contest, a level of interest typically seen in the final weeks of an election cycle. The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey also showed high interest, with 69 percent of registered voters putting themselves at 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale, where 10 means very interested.
A new CNN poll found that 45 percent of registered voters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting for president in 2020. That is the highest percentage to give that response since CNN began asking the question leading up to the 2004 contest.
Eighty-five percent of registered voters told ABC News/Washington Post pollsters in April they are absolutely certain to vote in the 2020 general election, comparable to reported voting likelihood in surveys taken closer to Election Day.
Republicans and Democrats alike express relatively high interest and enthusiasm. Neither party has a clear advantage on these measures at this point in the election cycle.
Surveying the Democratic and Republican fields
Fifty-eight percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters told CNN in March that it was too early to say which candidate they would support.
People who plan to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus are generally satisfied with the field of candidates (Economist/YouGov). No Democratic candidate appears to be disliked on balance by those in their party who have an opinion of them, but for some candidates who are not well-known, that does not amount to much support. Of the candidates with high name recognition, Joe Biden is rated most favorably, followed by Bernie Sanders (Monmouth University, CNN). In a Fox News survey that asked registered voters who are likely to vote in a Democratic primary how they would feel if various candidates won the nomination, more said they would be satisfied than dissatisfied with each of the 10 candidates included in the survey.
In a late April Economist/YouGov online survey, 79 percent of those who plan to vote in a Republican primary or caucus said they are satisfied with Donald Trump being the only candidate for the party’s nomination. Eighty-one percent of Republican registered voters in a recent Quinnipiac University survey said they would definitely vote for Trump in the general election; 63 percent of all Republicans in an ABC/Washington Post survey said they definitely would.
A candidate’s age: How much of a factor?
Pollsters have been asking questions about a candidate’s age since 1939, when Gallup asked people about the youngest age at which a man should become president and at which age a man would become too old for the presidency. The top response for youngest age was 36 to 40 years old (29 percent). The top response for when a man would become too old was 61 to 65 years old (27 percent).
In previous elections, when surveys have asked about specific candidates, age has generally not been perceived as a problem. People didn’t think Franklin Roosevelt, Hubert Humphrey, Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole, John McCain, or Hillary Clinton were too old. They did not think Barack Obama or Marco Rubio were too young.
In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, 58 percent of registered voters said they would be enthusiastic about or comfortable with voting for a person under age 40; 37 percent gave that response about a person over age 75. In an online Economist/YouGov survey that asked questions about the 2020 election, more people thought being 80 years old or older might make it too difficult to do the work the presidency requires (40 percent) than thought being under age 40 might make the candidate too inexperienced to do the work (29 percent).
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