| 来源类型 | Report |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Future positive | |
| Joseph B. Fuller; Judith K. Wallenstein; Manjari Raman; Alice de Chalendar | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-05-23 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Executive summary Companies face significant uncertainty as they attempt to prepare for the workplace of the future. In the last two decades, companies across the world have experienced an unprecedented rate and extent of change. Innovation, globalization, outsourcing, and the growth of contingent labor and gig work have resulted in substantial changes in the composition of the workforce, the emergence of new business models, exploding demand for new competencies, and redefinition of existing jobs. The force that garners most of the media attention — technological change — is often associated with anxiety. Forecasts often portend that technology will obliterate much work as we know it and that new business models will continue to disrupt traditional industry. Combined, they suggest that workers and business leaders alike have much to fear about the future of work. In order to understand the readiness of companies and workers to adapt to the broad array of forces affecting the workplace — beyond technology — Harvard Business School’s Project on Managing the Future of Work and Boston Consulting Group’s Henderson Institute conducted two global surveys. The first canvassed 11,000 middle-skills workers from 11 countries to learn how those with education levels less than a four-year bachelor’s degree perceive the effect of 15 forces of change (see Table I) on their future prospects. The second polled 6,500 C-suite and senior business leaders in eight countries to understand how prepared companies and their workforces were to tackle the 17 tectonic shifts (see Table 2) underway. Two messages emerged. One, business will have to do much more to prepare their companies and workforces for the turbulence that is already unfolding. As companies refine their strategies for managing—and shaping—the future of work, the findings suggested that employers will need to be more discerning and active in their choices, especially when it comes to preparing the workforce of the future. Two, the findings uncovered a significant, but overlooked, new force for change: the keen sense of optimism middle-skills workers exhibit about their ability and willingness to prepare for a better future. As companies navigate these unprecedented changes, they have an unexpected ally in that task—their employees. Consider the key findings from the two surveys: Business leaders Across eight countries and companies of all sizes, few business leaders seem to have determined which forces are most relevant or most disruptive to their organizations future success. When asked to consider the significance of each of the 17 forces on their organizations, a majority of business leaders noted that all were either highly significant or somewhat significant. Only 12 percentage points separated the force business leaders selected most often as highly significant—an increase in the level of skills and education required— compared with the force least often cited as highly significant—digital freelancing as a source of talent. When asked whether a force was already having an impact on their organizations, for almost all the forces, a third of business leaders reported the forces as having significant impact currently; 45% to 50% of executives, across the various geographies, projected they would have a significant impact in the future. The three forces that business leaders most often expected to have a significant impact on their organizations in the next five years were: employee expectations to find balance between personal and work life through flexible work mechanisms (46%); the need to improve the level of skills in the workforce (44%); and the difficulty in finding workers for the newly evolving jobs (44%). Forces related to technology—such as technologies that supplement the labor force (34%) and substitute the labor force (29%)—dropped to the bottom as a priority for the next five years. Business leaders saw them becoming significant for their organization only over the next five to 10 years and beyond. What prevented their organization from preparing for the forces of change immediately? The top three responses business leaders chose were: “My organization has other strategic priorities at the moment” (50%); “The impact my organization expects is still too far in the future” (39%); and “My organization lacks visibility on future trends and their impact” (34%). Despite a lack of clarity on which forces were most critical for their organizations, a substantial majority of business leaders expressed confidence that their organizations were prepared to take on these complex challenges. Across the eight countries, as many as 79% to 90% of business leaders deemed their organizations either well prepared or somewhat prepared for all 17 forces of change. When asked for the reasons that prevented their workers from preparing for the future, business leaders most frequently cited workers’ fear often asked for the reasons that prevented their workers from preparing for the future, business leaders most frequently cited workers’ fear of change. Middle-skills workers Globally, 52% of workers indicated they were either somewhat or very happy with their current employment; only 20% said that they were unhappy. Across all 11 countries surveyed, 45% of workers believed that their prospects had improved in the past five years. Middle-skills workers across 11 countries showed a high level of awareness of the forces likely to affect their work lives and drew material distinctions between them. Workers perceived the need for more training and education, but also recognized that a key catalyst for their future would be the actions companies took to address evolving customer needs. Workers also identified the growing significance of and the opportunity associated with the gig economy on their futures by ranking digital freelancing as a source of income in the top three issues having a “large” impact on their future. Of the 15 forces, workers had low expectations of their governments playing a role in protecting them from technology (listed 15th). Instead, workers demonstrated a high sense of pragmatism, recognizing that their best defense against technological encroachment on their work lay in more training at work and more education. More than 50% of workers perceived 11 out of those 15 forces as positive for their prospects. Workers expected to advance their prospects by earning higher wages and doing more fulfilling. Workers recognized that they needed to prepare themselves to meet the challenges posed by the changing nature of work. Worldwide, three out of four workers perceived the need to prepare for the future of work; two out of three expressed confidence in their ability to prepare for the change. Workers were more than twice (46%) as likely to hold themselves responsible for preparing for the future, rather than believing the responsibility lay with national governments (20%) or their employers (19%). A call to action Business leaders have a unique opportunity to shape how employees do the work that needs to be done in the future. They have the ability to improve their firm’s productivity and competitiveness, serve customers better, and above all, provide individuals with living wages, advancement prospects, and the dignity of labor. Achieving those goals will require employers to set aside their preconceptions and to take the initiative to bridge the gulf in perceptions that separates managements and middle-skills workers. Prioritize managing the future of work The limited ability of management to draw distinctions between such widely different forces of change suggests that employers have yet to conclude which forces constitute the greatest threats and which offer the greatest opportunities. The most pressing task before top management and board members is to determine which of the forces are most directly relevant to their own organizations’ long-term competitiveness. If everything is important, nothing is. Monitor trends and generate foresight Companies need to adapt their strategies to respond to those changes, especially those that will require substantial lead times to address. The survey shows that executives believe something of genuine importance is unfolding, but they do not quite know what to make of it. They would better serve their organizations and shareholders by investing in mechanisms to monitor those forces that pose the greatest risk or offer the greatest opportunity. Improve preparedness by developing action plans for different scenarios Companies seem blithely confident in their organizations’ readiness to tackle the future of work, despite being unable to specify which forces are of the greatest importance to their firms. The sheer breadth of changes underway might be making managers and policymakers cautious about committing to a specific course of action. In the face of significant uncertainty along multiple dimensions, decision makers often place great value on preserving optionality and avoiding irretrievable mistakes. Yet, given the speed of change, even short periods of inaction can cause a company to lose ground to a more dexterous competitor or a more nimble start-up. Invest in closing the middle-skills gap in the organization Companies don’t yet perceive middle-skills workers as strategic assets. As a result, they are not capitalizing on the widespread, latent optimism among their workers. Employees may be more willing to adopt new technologies and shift to agile work processes than employers imagine. The reality is that workers are ready to embrace change. Workers recognize that they need to prepare themselves to meet the challenges posed by the changing nature of work and feel confident that they have the ability to accomplish that goal. Decision makers should reflect on how to harness those sentiments as they consider how to position their companies and countries in the evolving world of work. Partner with employees in the transformation process Companies are leaving untapped their workers’ desire to prepare for the future of work. Business leaders and policymakers need to consider how they can support workers in realizing their ambitions for the future. Companies have to gain clarity about their current skills base and the skills they will require in the future. They will need to expand their definition of “talent” beyond highly skilled workers with high educational attainment to encompass workers with the skills to do jobs that are chronically hard to fill. They will need to be more diligent in forecasting which middle-skills jobs will be integral to their future competitiveness and where they can source candidates with the right skills mix for those positions. Taking such measures will allow companies to develop plans for adapting to new technologies that change tasks, lead to new business models, or require enhanced skills. Embed learning across the organization to help employees prepare better for the future Companies need to do much more to provide the support that workers need to prepare for the future of work. The worker survey revealed that middle-skills employees lack the financial resources and time to enhance their skills and are uncertain about how they should prepare. Ironically, most business leaders do not recognize that their failure to support workers by providing the financial support, on-the-job training, and guidance needed constitutes a major threat to their enterprises’ intermediate and long-term competitiveness. Companies will need to build the workforce they need in the future through various means. While in-house training is a time-honored concept, it needs to expand beyond formal classroom training to on-the-job learning, project-based staffing and learning, and incentives to encourage workers to learn on their personal time. Companies must realize that it is in their self-interest to establish systems and platforms that cultivate the skills of their incumbent employees through continuous learning. Employers and employees will need to enter into a learning contract that reflects a shared commitment to continuous learning and reskilling. Such a reciprocal arrangement will encourage employers to make the investment in training or tuition support needed to cultivate the latest skills for their organization—and it will help employees acquire the emerging skills and competencies they need for growth and prosperity. Read the full report at Harvard Business School. |
| 主题 | Economics of Education ; US Labor Market |
| 标签 | employers ; Human Dignity Project ; New Skills Marketplace ; Productivity ; US workforce |
| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/future-positive/ |
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/206677 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joseph B. Fuller,Judith K. Wallenstein,Manjari Raman,et al. Future positive. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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