| 来源类型 | Report
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| AEI Political Report: Early sentiments on Trump’s reelection prospects; revisiting the 2018 Kavanaugh confirmation battle |
| Karlyn Bowman; Eleanor O’Neil
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| 发表日期 | 2019-07-24
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| 出版年 | 2019
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Read the PDF
In this issue of AEI’s Political Report, we examine Donald Trump’s standing with voters and compare it to Barack Obama’s at the same point in the cycle. We also review public attitudes about confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve on the Supreme Court.
Trump’s reelection prospects: Early sentiments
More registered voters say they definitely plan to vote against Donald Trump than gave that response about Barack Obama at a comparable point in the 2012 election cycle. Forty-six percent of registered voters told Fox News in May that they would definitely vote for someone else; 36 percent gave that response when asked about Obama in June 2011. At the other end of the scale, 28 percent said they would definitely vote to reelect Trump, the same percentage as said that about Obama.
Opposition to Trump’s reelection aligns with negative views of the president. In Fox News surveys, the percentages of registered voters saying they would definitely vote for someone other than Trump, strongly disapprove of the job he is doing, and have strongly unfavorable views of him are similar.
In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, people who did not choose Trump in any of the five different 2020 matchups with Democratic candidates felt more strongly about the importance of Trump losing than those who chose him in every matchup felt about the importance of him winning. Thirty-seven percent said it was extremely important that he does not win a second term, compared to 22 percent who said it was extremely important that he does win.
Polls show mixed results on whether Democrats care more about a candidate’s chance of beating Trump or a candidate’s positions on issues (NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CNN, Gallup).
Revisiting the 2018 Kavanaugh confirmation battle
The final polls from six pollsters provide different impressions of the public’s verdict on voting to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh, with most showing more opposition than support. In Politico/Morning Consult online surveys taken from July to October 2018, opinions about his confirmation became more negative over time.
Partisan differences about his confirmation were greater than gender differences throughout the confirmation battle (Politico/Morning Consult).
After the hearings regarding Christine Blasey Ford’s allegation that Kavanaugh had assaulted her (hearings at which both testified), opinions of Ford became more favorable; opinions of Kavanaugh became more negative (NPR/PBS, NewsHour/Marist). In a mid-October AP/NORC survey taken after Kavanaugh was confirmed, more people felt Ford had been treated unfairly by the Senate Judiciary Committee (42 percent) than felt Kavanaugh had (33 percent).
Americans disapproved of the way Republicans and, separately, Democrats in the Senate and Donald Trump handled the confirmation hearings (Quinnipiac University, CNN, AP/NORC).
To view past issues of AEI’s Political Report, visit our archive here. |
| 主题 | Courts
; Elections
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| 标签 | AEI Political Report
; American politics
; Brett Kavanaugh
; Donald Trump
; Elections
; Presidential Election
; Public opinion polls
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| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/aei-political-report-trumps-reelection-prospects-kavanaugh/
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| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/206708
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Karlyn Bowman,Eleanor O’Neil. AEI Political Report: Early sentiments on Trump’s reelection prospects; revisiting the 2018 Kavanaugh confirmation battle. 2019.
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文件名：
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Political-Report-July-August-2019.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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