| 来源类型 | Report
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| Attribution, intent, and response in the Abqaiq attack |
| Frederick W. Kagan
|
| 发表日期 | 2019-10-01
|
| 出版年 | 2019
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | The US should conduct a military strike in response to the Iranian attack on the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia in order to deter continued Iranian military escalation. Deterrence requires more than punitive strikes. It requires credibly holding at risk something the regime is not willing to lose. Beginning an air campaign against Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) targets in Syria is one approach; a significant air/missile campaign against targets in Iran itself is another. Each option carries its own significant risks and opportunities, which must be weighed carefully before choosing a course of action. The risks of any retaliatory strike are high, but the risks of failing to respond to the Abqaiq attack are higher.
The attack on Abqaiq was planned and executed by Iran and most likely launched from Iranian territory. It was part of a pattern of Iranian military escalation in response to the Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign.
The al Houthi claim to have conducted the attack was part of a skillful information operation intended to divert the Western discussion away from Iran’s role and focus it instead on the war in Yemen and on Saudi Arabia’s misdeeds. That information operation has succeeded to a considerable extent as the Western debate has indeed focused excessively on the question of attributing the attack, on Saudi Arabia’s culpability for the humanitarian situation and its own bombing campaign in Yemen, and on the horrific murder and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi.
The US and Iran are escalating in parallel. The US is escalating in sanctions and defensive military deployments and operations. Iran is escalating its military aggression and violations of the nuclear deal. US escalations have not thus far deterred Iranian escalations. The US has steadily increased sanctions and other economic pressure, has deployed limited military forces to the region to bolster its own and its allies’ defenses, and has formed a maritime defensive operation to deter Iranian seizures of oil tankers. Iran and its allies and proxies have escalated military attacks, including shooting at (and shooting down) multiple American drones, firing rockets and mortars at US positions in Iraq, and repeatedly attacking Saudi oil infrastructure and a desalination plant. It has also escalated its violations of the nuclear deal. Increasing American economic pressure has not deterred Iranian military or nuclear deal-violation escalation, and American military actions have only changed the precise shape of Iranian military escalation, if that. The US has not therefore identified a non-violent means of deterring future Iranian escalation.
Read the full report here. |
| 主题 | Foreign and Defense Policy
; Middle East
; Terrorism
|
| 标签 | al Houthis
; Iran
; Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA)
; Iraq
; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
; US-Iran relations
; Yemen
|
| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/attribution-intent-and-response-in-the-abqaiq-attack/
|
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/206730
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Frederick W. Kagan. Attribution, intent, and response in the Abqaiq attack. 2019.
|
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