全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): On the observational implications of Knightian uncertainty

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	论文
	On the observational implications of Knightian uncertainty
	Kevin A. Hassett; Weifeng Zhong
发表日期	2018-06-08
出版年	2018
语种	英语
摘要	Editor’s note: This paper has been updated from the original version posted in December 2016. Abstract: We develop a model of a prediction market with ambiguity and derive testable implications of the presence of Knightian uncertainty. Our model can also explain two commonly observed empirical regularities in betting markets: the tendency for longshots to win less often than odds would indicate and the tendency for favorites to win more often. Using historical data from Intrade, we further present empirical evidence that is consistent with the predicted presence of Knightian uncertainty. Our evidence also suggests that, even with information acquisition, the Knightian uncertainty of the world may be not “learnable” to the traders in prediction markets. Read the full PDF here.
主题	Economics
URL	https://www.aei.org/research-products/working-paper/on-the-observational-implications-of-knightian-uncertainty/
来源智库	American Enterprise Institute (United States)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/207387
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kevin A. Hassett,Weifeng Zhong. On the observational implications of Knightian uncertainty. 2018.