| 摘要 | Buy the book.
After a war breaks out, what factors influence the belligerents’ decisions about whether to talk to their enemy, and when may their position on wartime diplomacy change? How do we get from only fighting to also talking?
In “The Costs of Conversation,” Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that states are primarily concerned with the strategic costs of conversation, and these costs need to be low before combatants are willing to directly talk with their enemy. Specifically, Mastro writes, leaders look to two factors when determining the strategic costs of talking to the enemy: First, will the enemy interpret openness to diplomacy as a sign of weakness? And second, if it does, how will the enemy change its military strategy in response? A country will only be willing to come to the negotiating table once it is confident that such a move will not convey weakness and that the enemy will not escalate the war in response.
Through four primary case studies — North Vietnamese diplomatic decisions during the Vietnam War, those of China in the Korean War and Sino-Indian War, and Indian diplomatic decision-making in the latter conflict — “The Costs of Conversation” demonstrates that the strategic costs of conversation best explain the timing and nature of countries’ approach to wartime talks, and therefore when peace talks begin. As a result, Mastro’s findings have significant theoretical and practical implications for war duration and termination, as well as for military strategy, diplomacy, and mediation.
Listen to Oriana Skylar Mastro discuss “The Costs of Conversation” on “Young China Watchers.”
Praise for “The Costs of Conversation”
“‘The Costs of Conversation’ tackles a theoretically and practically important question: What are the obstacles to peace talks in wartime? Analyzing three conflicts along China’s periphery in the 1950s and 1960s, Oriana Skylar Mastro finds that talk in war is not necessarily cheap. Clearly written with crisp findings, this volume will remain on international relations and foreign policy reading lists for many years.”
— David M. Lampton, Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow, Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University
“When belligerents are winning, they’re not interested in talking; when they’re losing, they’re scared of it. So how do peace negotiations ever begin? In this ground-breaking study, Oriana Skylar Mastro explores the crucial question of when warring parties will talk to each other — and when they won’t. Packed with deep original research on major Asian conflicts, ‘The Costs of Conversation’ is crucial reading for anyone interested in how wars end.”
— Gideon Rose, editor, Foreign Affairs; author, “How Wars End: Why We Always Fight the Last Battle” (Simon & Schuster, 2010)
“Oriana Mastro’s ‘The Costs of Conversation’ is an important new contribution towards our understanding of wartime diplomacy and war termination. The book is one of the first attempts to unpack the strategic dimensions of a belligerent’s decision whether or not to engage in wartime diplomatic talks. An important read for students, scholars, and policy-makers.”
— Dan Reiter, Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor of Political Science, Emory University; author, “How Wars End” (Princeton University Press, 2009)
“Mastro forwards a new theory of when states agree to negotiate peace. She demonstrates the power of that theory through painstaking research on several conflicts in Asia. This impressive book thereby makes contributions to international relations theory, Asian studies, and diplomatic history.”
— Thomas J. Christensen, professor of international and public affairs, Columbia University
Oriana Skylar Mastro is a Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where she focuses on Chinese military and security policy in the Asia-Pacific and rising power challenges to the international order. She is also assistant professor of security studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and concurrently serves in the United States Air Force Reserve as a senior China analyst at the Pentagon. |
