| 来源类型 | Journal Publication |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| Dealing with debt | |
| Vincent R. Reinhart; Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth Rogoff | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-05-04 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Abstract: This paper explores the menu of options for renormalizing public debt levels relative to nominal activity in the long run, should governments eventually decide to do so. Orthodox ones for medium-term debt stabilization, the standard fare of officialdom, include enhancing growth, running primary budget surpluses, and privatizing government assets. Heterodox polices include restructuring debt contracts, generating unexpected inflation, taxing wealth, and repressing private finance. We examine 70 episodes across 22 advanced economies from 1800 to 2014 where there were significant and sustained reductions in public debt relative to nominal GDP. In the event, advanced countries have relied far more on heterodox approaches than many observers choose to remember. This is the Authors’ Accepted Manuscript (post-print) of the paper forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.11.001. Introduction: Central to the discussion of economic prospects is the level of debt in major economies. After the severe 2008 global financial crisis and resultant recession in one half of the economies of the world, deleveraging in the private sector was modest and balance-sheet expansion in the public sector was massive. Indeed, over the long history considered by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), the step-up in public debt to nominal GDP was without precedent in a window not containing a global war. Not only does the advanced-economy public debt buildup come on top of near-record private debt levels, but it also comes alongside record and near-record external debt levels and, in many countries, massively underfunded old age pension and health programs. Reinhart, Reinhart and Rogoff (2012) characterize the problem as a quadruple debt overhang. The main contribution of this paper is to lay out a complete menu of options for renormalizing the level of public debt relative to nominal activity in the long run, should governments eventually decide to do so. In the first half dozen years after the 2007-2008 crisis, the real debate has rightly been about how fast and for how long to let debt/GDP ratios rise, not about cutting them. But a vision of longer-term options and issues is key to weighing alternative medium-term stabilization strategies. |
| 主题 | Public Economics |
| 标签 | debt ; Federal budget |
| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/journal-publication/dealing-with-debt/ |
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/209109 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Vincent R. Reinhart,Carmen M. Reinhart,Kenneth Rogoff. Dealing with debt. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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