| 来源类型 | Journal Publication |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| The Obama Doctrine: Will it last? | |
| Gary J. Schmitt; James M. Cunningham | |
| 发表日期 | 2017-03-10 |
| 出版年 | 2017 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | President Obama, by his own account and by scholarly analysis of his policies, developed a unique foreign policy vision. It was a vision that, arguably, is distinct from not only his predecessor, George W. Bush, but earlier presidents as well. Its adequacy to the times remains a matter of dispute, yet, whatever one’s opinion on that front, an even more basic question is whether his strategic vision will survive beyond his presidency. To address that question, a number of factors must be considered. Other “transformative” administrations had, for example, leading figures that carried on that vision by their writings and commentary and sometimes served as advisors to future administrations. Who will be that figure in a post-Obama world? Since presidents are seen and see themselves as representing the nation as a whole, what is the state of American public opinion when it comes America’s role in the world? Is it in tune with the Obama vision, or not? To what extent will a new president reinforce or dissent from that vision and, hence, shape public opinion as well. And, of course, presidents are not simply popular leaders; they depend on a broad elite both to give their policies substantive depth and to carry out their vision. What can be said of elite opinion today? Is it in sync with Obama’s policies or is it, as Obama himself suggested in his interview with Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic, “the blob,” with a mind distinct from his own defense and foreign policy? Although a new president never gets a “clean sheet” upon which to craft his own administration’s foreign and defense policies—he inherits the decisions and conditions brought about by the decisions of his predecessor— he will have a set of priorities and policies to implement. In the case of President Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, predicting the course of his administration is difficult at this early stage and is further complicated by his own executive style, his lack of experience in politics and governing, and the seemingly different views of his senior advisors. To what extent then will he change course from the past eight years or reinforce the path? The development of foreign policy is an iterative process, as well. Systemic conditions—public and Congressional opinion and budgetary constraints, to name a few—and the vicissitudes of global events will influence the longevity of the Obama vision as well. Although presidents have accumulated a great deal of autonomy in foreign and defense policy, Congress retains in the American system of separated powers some say in the matter, with law-making, oversight, and budgetary authorities. What then is Congress’ mind regarding America’s role in the world and Obama’s legacy? Both Congress and the White House must consider how the economy and fiscal situation bound or, conversely, provide resources for the implementation of any foreign and defense agenda. Will US budgetary constraints produce—regardless of the new president’s intentions—a national security agenda more akin to President Obama’s than not? And, finally, the best laid plans of any administration fall prey to changing circumstances; the necessity of responding to global events will dictate, to varying degrees, policy choices. In short, if the Obama doctrine survives beyond the Obama administration, it will be because all these factors—both domestic and global, human and systemic—aligned to carry it forward. Whether it will last cannot be known with certainty, but what will decide whether it lasts can be. To read the rest of the essay, please see the above PDF. |
| 主题 | Defense |
| 标签 | American Leadership ; Barack Obama ; Donald Trump ; George W. Bush |
| URL | https://www.aei.org/research-products/journal-publication/the-obama-doctrine-will-it-last/ |
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/209162 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gary J. Schmitt,James M. Cunningham. The Obama Doctrine: Will it last?. 2017. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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