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Key Points
1. Implementing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s vision of a more regionally and internationally engaged foreign policy is essential to the future of Japan and the region. Japan’s current capability, its future potential, and its hesitant evolution away from postwar restrictions are an increasingly important part of the Asia-Pacific security equation. Japan has become one of the most powerful Asian states since the late 19th century, but Japanese leaders will need to overcome significant economic hurdles if they hope to translate national resources into national power.
2. Abe has distanced his country from its postwar pacifism and unveiled a new, more realist foreign policy. Since returning to power in September 2012, Abe has pushed through a series of institutional, legal, diplomatic, and military reforms that are reshaping Japan’s national security posture. By slowly eliminating restraints on security cooperation, by deepening its relationship with the United States, and by emphasizing a more muscular, liberal rhetoric, Abe’s Japan has positioned itself as the “anti-China” in Asia.
3. Abe’s attempts to modernize Japan’s foreign and security policies are limited by how much internal change he and other Japanese are willing to accept. Although Japan engages with the world through trade, diplomacy, and study, the island nation prioritizes domestic, social, and political stability over outside engagement. Attempts by Japan to take a leadership role in Asia, largely in response to China’s rapid rise, are constrained by an equally powerful desire not to get too involved in the outer world.
4. The competition between Tokyo and Beijing is poised to enter an even more intense period. Both China and Japan are strong, united, global players, well aware of each other’s strengths and their own weaknesses. The competition between Japan and China is as likely to shape Asia as the competition between China and the US.
5. As Asia’s most developed democracy, Japan can be a key partner for the United States in championing liberal values. The time is ripe for the alliance between the United States and Japan to forge a new community of nations in Asia that reflect free-market and democratic values and build a cooperative security architecture. Only by embracing their global responsibilities can the United States and Japan ensure that the dynamic economic and political environment that both countries have generally relied on continues into the future. |
