| 来源类型 | Op-Ed |
| 规范类型 | 评论 |
| Gadhafi Must Still Be Captured | |
| Paul Wolfowitz; Patrick Clawson | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-09-22 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The liberation of Tripoli was a great victory for the Libyan freedom fighters and their leadership–as well as their NATO and Arab allies–but it has not ended the fight for the country. Even when pro-Gadhafi forces are driven out of Sirte and Bani Walid the conflict might continue, as it did in Afghanistan and Iraq after the liberation of Kabul and Baghdad. Forces allied to the former regime could still threaten a fragile new government using guerilla and terrorist tactics. Gadhafi has long since rejected the idea of a comfortable retirement in Venezuela or Belarus. It would be a mistake to underestimate his tenacity or to dismiss the warning of his son Seif that “We will fight to our very last man, woman, and bullet.” The complex of tunnels and arms caches found in Tripoli, Benghazi and elsewhere suggest some planning for the possibility of a fight to the bitter end. Of course, Libya is not the same as Iraq or Afghanistan. There are fundamental differences in terrain, in the character of the population, in the availability of cross-border sanctuaries. It is good that there are no foreign forces in Libya who could be targeted and pressured to leave. Another advantage for the Libyans is that Gadhafi’s security apparatus, although terrifying, was not as well organized or prepared as Saddam’s and did not rest on the base of a well-established party. Nor does Gadhafi appear to have a large group of fiercely determined fighters like the Taliban. Nonetheless, he may still be able to use money and intimidation to secure support. His counter-liberation strategy might target the fragility and potential divisions of the new government, including by assassinating key leaders. The former members of the notorious “Revolutionary Committees” and “People’s Committees” could instigate gang violence and kidnappings. A breakdown of law and order would weaken the new government, both domestically and internationally, but it cannot resort to Gadhafi’s police-state tactics to maintain security. Warning of the counter-liberation danger is not to predict that it will happen, much less that it could succeed, but simply to caution that Gadhafi’s defeat should not be assumed prematurely. Anticipating the possible danger is the best way to avert it. Doing so depends mainly on the Libyans themselves–and that is already an advantage over Iraq, where after Saddam’s fall the U.S. mistakenly assigned authority to an occupation government. Yet there is much that the U.S., NATO and the international community can do to help. First is to recognize the importance of capturing or killing Gadhafi. In this regard, Romania’s experience is instructive. Instead of relying on Soviet troops to keep him in power, the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceaucescu relied on his secret police, the feared Securitate. Its roster of informers was thought to include as many as one in four Romanians. When Ceaucescu fell, the Securitate began a campaign of indiscriminate shooting and violence. But soon Ceaucescu was captured and executed. The next morning, his body was displayed publicly and the Securitate’s shooting faded away. Hopefully the Libyans will give Gadhafi more due process if they do capture him. But neither should it take three years–as it did with Saddam–to give him a fair trial. The U.S. and NATO can help the Libyans pursue Gadhafi. On his recent visit to Tripoli, British Prime Minister David Cameron told the Libyans clearly: “We will help you find Gadhafi and bring him to justice.” Other countries, including the U.S., should do the same. Second, it is particularly important to deny funding to any potential insurgency by finding and confiscating all of Gadhafi’s hidden assets. Countries like the U.S. that can undertake financial investigations should do so. Countries like South Africa, where Gadhafi is known to have made substantial investments, should urgently provide full transparency regarding those assets. Third, Gadhafi and his allies must be denied sanctuary. Countries like Niger should stop granting asylum to fugitives from the regime–and other countries, such as Algeria, should not attempt to do so covertly. Fourth, the Libyans should secure all the documents of the Gadhafi regime, particularly the personnel records of the Revolutionary Committees and other arms of the secret services. If trouble begins, those records would give clues to some of the people most likely to be responsible and who need to be placed under closer surveillance. Friendly countries should provide the Libyans with technical assistance to organize these documents and create digitally searchable records. Finally, in a country awash in weapons, the new Libyan authorities should introduce a reliable biometric identification system for anyone authorized to carry a weapon, including anyone in the new security services. Such identification is also needed for former members of Gadhafi’s security apparatus and for anyone detained for instigating violence. This would help avoid the problem that plagued post-Saddam Iraq, where captured insurgents were repeatedly released because their prior records could not be located. One should neither exaggerate the threat that Gadhafi still poses nor dismiss him as an irrelevant buffoon. The longer he remains at large and able to do damage, the greater the risk that he might reawaken the fear he once instilled, destabilizing the efforts of the Libyan people to build a new, free society. It is important for them to succeed, not least so that dealing with chaos in Libya does not become an international concern. Paul Wolfowitz is a visiting scholar at AEI UN Photo |
| 主题 | Middle East |
| 标签 | Arab spring ; Gaddafi ; libya ; Libya civil war ; Moammar Gadhafi ; Muammar Qaddafi ; NATO |
| URL | https://www.aei.org/op-eds/gadhafi-must-still-be-captured/ |
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/210132 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paul Wolfowitz,Patrick Clawson. Gadhafi Must Still Be Captured. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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