| 来源类型 | Op-Ed
|
| 规范类型 | 评论
|
| Revisiting public opinion on the Kavanaugh confirmation battle |
| Karlyn Bowman
|
| 发表日期 | 2019-09-03
|
| 出版年 | 2019
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | One year ago on September 4, the Senate Judiciary Committee began its hearings on the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve on the Supreme Court. As Gallup reported then, reactions to Kavanaugh were divided, with 40 percent in favor of his confirmation and 36 percent opposed. Gallup noted that his “four-point margin in favor of confirmation is one of the smallest measured to date, leaving him less of a cushion in public support should any problematic issues arise in the hearings.” Little did Gallup or anyone else know what was about to happen. In Gallup’s survey taken between September 24 and 30, just a few days before the Senate voted on October 6 to confirm Kavanaugh, people were divided 46 in favor to 45 percent opposed. Most other polls conducted immediately before the vote showed opposition outweighing support.
How did Americans react to the hearings and what has the fallout been since them? First, there were, as there are about so many issues in public opinion today, deep partisan differences about his confirmation, and they were much larger than gender differences about it. In a Politico/Morning Consult poll taken a day after his confirmation, there was a 62-percentage point gap between Democrats and Republicans on whether the Senate made the right decision, with 73 percent of Republicans and 11 percent of Democrats giving this response. The gap between men and women was 9 points.
As to the allegations of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford that Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her while they were in high school, registered voters in a late September Quinnipiac survey felt she had been treated fairly by a margin of 48 to 41 percent, but that he had been treated unfairly by 47 to 43 percent. In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey conducted before their testimonies to the committee and then afterward, favorable impressions of her increased from 20 percent in September 22-24 poll to 41 percent in their October 1 survey. Unfavorable impressions grew from 24 to 32 percent. Views of Kavanaugh became less favorable (from 37 to 47 percent in these two surveys); favorable views of him rose from 31 to 36 percent.
How did Americans feel about the way Senate Republicans and Democrats handled his confirmation hearings? In a late September Quinnipiac question about the way the accusations of sexual misconduct were handled, majorities of registered voters disapproved of both Senate Republicans’ and Senate Democrats’ actions. Fifty-five percent in an October 4-7 CNN poll disapproved of the way Republicans in the US Senate handled the allegations, while 35 percent approved. The Democrats in the Senate did no better—56 percent disapproved and 36 percent approved.
What has the fallout of the confirmation fight been? One answer comes from the 2018 elections which took place a month after the Kavanaugh vote. Voters in the 2018 network exit poll opposed his confirmation by 47 to 43 percent. But a “Kavanaugh effect” appeared to contribute to losses for several Democratic Senators who voted against him. |
| 主题 | Courts
; Politics and Public Opinion
; Polls
; Society and Culture
|
| 标签 | American politics
; Brett Kavanaugh
; Public opinion polls
; Supreme Court
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| URL | https://www.aei.org/op-eds/revisiting-public-opinion-on-the-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle/
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| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/210403
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Karlyn Bowman. Revisiting public opinion on the Kavanaugh confirmation battle. 2019.
|
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