| 摘要 | If the hype turns out to be true, on Sunday 50,000 Indian-Americans will troop into Houston’s NRG Stadium to listen to a speech by Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister. That’s nearly three times the size of the crowd that turned up for Mr. Modi at New York’s Madison Square Garden five years ago. Perhaps lured by the yugeness, President Trump plans to speak as well.
Since winning power in 2014, Mr. Modi has honed the overseas rally as an instrument to boost both Indian diplomacy and the prime minister’s political standing at home. He has addressed diaspora audiences in Sydney, Toronto, London, Singapore, Johannesburg and elsewhere. But America stands out: It’s home to 4.4 million people of Indian origin, the richest and most influential Indian diaspora in the world. Mr. Modi’s speech Sunday will be his fourth address to Indian-Americans in five years.
The prime minister wears his admiration for Indian-Americans on his sleeve. (In large part the affection is mutual, though observers also expect throngs of protesters in Houston.) In New York, Mr. Modi praised the community for raising India’s standing in the world. In San Jose, Calif., he hailed it as a “brain deposit” rather than a “brain drain” from India. In Washington, he talked about Indian immigrants having “helped the USA to become more prosperous.”
But at the heart of these spectacles lies a paradox. If Mr. Modi’s domestic policies are any indication, he appears not truly to grasp the basis of Indian-Americans’ success. They have thrived because America is built on principles that encourage it: a belief in free enterprise, an embrace of diversity and a meritocratic culture. On Mr. Modi’s watch, India has regressed on all three fronts.
Nevertheless, these jamborees enhance India’s diplomatic clout. Mr. Trump’s presence signals Washington’s support for New Delhi, much appreciated amid a spate of bad press over last month’s heavy-handed abrogation of autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed Himalayan territory claimed by both India and Pakistan. The likely presence of House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, along with both Republican and Democratic members of Congress, gives that support bipartisan sheen.
Domestic politics may matter even more. Indian TV news channels will beam wall-to-wall coverage of the Houston event—called “Howdy, Modi!”—to millions of homes. The sight of Mr. Modi rousing supporters in the world’s most powerful country cements his image as a conquering hero astride the global stage and widens the gap in stature between the prime minister and his rivals. These rallies contribute to the belief, widely held in India, that Mr. Modi has enhanced the country’s stature, too.
Reality is less rosy. After five years in power, Mr. Modi’s reputation as an economic administrator has taken a beating. In the quarter ending June 30, the economy grew at only 5%, its slowest in six years, after declining for five consecutive quarters. If Indian statistics exaggerate GDP growth, as Harvard’s Arvind Subramanian recently suggested in a widely cited paper, the country starts to look like a largely agrarian economy languishing at postindustrial economic growth rates. International money managers have sold $4.5 billion of Indian shares since June. According to Bloomberg, they’re on course for the biggest quarterly exodus in two decades.
Cyclical factors and a global slowdown have no doubt contributed to India’s sluggishness. But Mr. Modi’s overreliance on bureaucrats, mistrust of market forces, and occasional flirtation with crank economic theorists from his Hindu nationalist movement have exacerbated the problem.
Many economists tie the beginning of India’s downturn to the prime minister’s 2016 decision to nuke nearly 90% of India’s currency in a quixotic attempt to destroy so-called black money. In 2017 the government implemented a shoddy nationwide value-added tax despite pleas from experts who pointed out that high rates, a complex multislab structure, and overly stringent reporting requirements made it the opposite of the “good and simple” tax that was promised.
At the same time, rapacious tax inspectors, tasked with collecting the vast amounts needed to fund Mr. Modi’s ambitious welfare schemes, have driven thousands of wealthy Indians abroad. Privatization has stalled, in part because Mr. Modi appears to believe that hiring the right managers—often retired bureaucrats—can make state-owned companies profitable and allow him to avoid selling them to private investors. On trade, the Modi government has reversed a quarter-century of liberalization by raising tariffs.
More fundamentally, Mr. Modi has raised fears that his government will undermine the bedrock of Indian stability: its management of religious and linguistic diversity. The Silicon Valley tech giants and Texas oil companies that hire talented Indian engineers don’t care how their employees pray or what they keep in their freezers. In India, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s agenda includes harsh punishments for cow slaughter and discouraging interfaith marriages by raising the phantasm of “love jihad” by Muslim men in search of Hindu brides.
Mr. Modi deserves credit for grasping the importance of Indian-Americans as an example to emulate. But unless he re-examines his policies, the applause at “Howdy, Modi!” won’t change the reality that many people are instead choosing to say, “Goodbye, India.” |
