| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 评论 |
| Without Reforms, the Mideast Risks Revolution | |
| Danielle Pletka; Augusto Lopez-Claros | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-04-08 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Few doubt that the status quo in the Arab world is unsustainable. But where will liberalization come from, and how much time remains before the economic challenges confronting Arab governments transform themselves into political crises? More than 60 percent of Libyans are under 15, with unemployment close to 30 percent. In Saudi Arabia, 38 percent are under 15, with 25 percent unemployed. The International Labor Organization tells us that this is the norm in the region, which has the highest population growth rates in the world and is home to more than one quarter of the earth’s total unemployed young people aged from 15 to 24. If several million youths are entering the job market each year, who will supply the jobs needed to employ them? The task of employing these Arab millions demands a major rethink of the current economic model that prevails in the Middle East. The statistics paint a sobering picture of decline. In many Arab countries, per capita income has plummeted. The current rise in crude oil prices is unlikely to provide much solace, as many countries in the region are already unduly dependent on the energy sector. The singular lack of diversity in earnings leaves them prey to the vagaries of international oil prices. Intra-Arab trade in nonpetroleum goods is minuscule; non-oil exports from the entire Middle East and North Africa equal Finland’s annual exports. In failing to plan for the future, Arab regimes risk brewing their own explosive mix. Despite the obvious swell of socioeconomic pressures, sustained commitment to economic and political reform has not yet matched the magnitude of the challenges at hand. There have been some limited reforms. In Kuwait, Qatar and the Gulf neighborhood, principles of economic diversity and privatization have started to take root. Through a process of friendly extortion, Western countries have succeeded in linking a portion of Egypt’s annual assistance to economic reform. In the early 1990s, it appeared that Egypt had seen the light, and price controls were eased, agricultural regulations relaxed and trade and investment laws liberalized up to a point. Syria talked a good game at the beginning of the 1990s. When foreign exchange rates were liberalized, Syria’s well-connected business community rejoiced, encouraging expatriates to come home and invest their earnings. But even these moves do not measure up when compared with the pace of reform in other parts of the world. Elsewhere, true revolutions are under way, as countries cope with the challenges of globalization by liberalizing their trade and investment regimes, investing heavily in information and communications technologies and trying to create friendlier environments for private sector development. In Central and Eastern Europe, for example, a combination of cautious macroeconomic management, ambitious structural reforms and the consolidation of democracy have resulted in economic growth rates more than twice the EU average during the past decade. What is becoming increasingly clear is that in the Arab world, undue caution with the pace of reforms will inevitably lead to an erosion of relative competitiveness. In today’s world, if you walk but others run, you will fall behind. This much is clear from the work done at the Global Competitiveness Program in the World Economic Forum, as we examine the experience of economies as diverse as those of China, Chile, Estonia, India, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. In the Arab world, the major privatizations necessary to get government out of the business of business have been missing. Kuwait’s public sector still employs 94 percent of the national labor force. Free elections are only half the story, when parties are not free to form, when a king’s appointed Parliament has equal powers to the elected body, when television and newspapers cannot report freely. It is increasingly obvious that the false populism and religious fanaticism of Islamic extremism offer no political, economic or social model capable of satisfying the real world requirements of a growing Arab world. Sustained economic reforms are needed to expand opportunity and allow the people to satisfy legitimate aspirations for meaningful jobs and for the self-confidence that is gained through the exercise of personal freedoms. As for political reforms, where genuine political parties and grass roots movements flourish, there will be limited enthusiasm for the nihilism of an Osama bin Laden. If the peoples of the Middle East are not freed to find those solutions for themselves, then sooner or later the region’s current leaders will face revolution. Danielle Pletka is vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at AEI. Augusto Lopez-Claros is chief economist and director of the Global Competitiveness Program at the World Economic Forum. |
| 主题 | Foreign and Defense Policy ; Middle East |
| 标签 | Arabs ; economic reform ; freedom ; revolution ; US economy |
| URL | https://www.aei.org/articles/without-reforms-the-mideast-risks-revolution/ |
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/240783 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Danielle Pletka,Augusto Lopez-Claros. Without Reforms, the Mideast Risks Revolution. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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