| 来源类型 | Article
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| 规范类型 | 评论
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| Interpreting the Great Moderation |
| Steven J. Davis; James A. Kahn
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| 发表日期 | 2008-05-19
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| 出版年 | 2008
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | We review evidence on the Great Moderation in conjunction with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level. We combine the two types of evidence to develop a tentative story for important components of the aggregate volatility decline and its consequences. The key ingredients are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility–most dramatically in the durable goods sector–but the absence of a decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s much of the moderation reflects a decline in high frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households. . . .
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Steven J. Davis is a visiting scholar at AEI. James A. Kahn is a visiting associate professor in the Stern School of Business at New York University and vice president for macroeconomic and monetary studies at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. |
| 主题 | Economics
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| 标签 | US economy
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| URL | https://www.aei.org/articles/interpreting-the-great-moderation/
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| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/245712
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Steven J. Davis,James A. Kahn. Interpreting the Great Moderation. 2008.
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