| 摘要 |
CRESCENDO brings together seven Earth System Modelling (ESM) groups with three Integrated Assessment Modelling
teams, as well as experts in ESM evaluation, ESM projection and feedback analysis, climate impacts and science
communication to address the following goals; (i) improve the process-realism and simulation-quality of European ESMs in
order to increase the reliability of future Earth system projections; (ii) develop and apply a community ESM evaluation tool
allowing routine ESM performance benchmarking, process-based ESM evaluation and the analysis of Earth system
projections. The resulting tool will be installed and made openly-available on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF); (iii)
further develop the discipline of emergent constraints in order to better constrain the representation of key biogeochemical
and aerosol feedbacks in ESMs and thereby reduce overall uncertainty in Earth system projections; (iv) quantify the effective
radiative forcing of key biogeochemical and aerosol feedbacks in ESM projections; (v) contribute to the development of a
new set of combined socio-economic and climate emission scenarios that more explicitly link future socio-economic
development pathways with global radiative forcing; (vi) apply the project ESMs to these new scenario data to generate an
ensemble of Earth system projections for the coming century and, in combination with the underlying socio-economic
scenarios, use these projections to assess joint risks and co-benefits related to climate change, climate impacts, adaptation
and mitigation; (vii) ensure data produced by CRESCENDO is available to the international community through timely
archival on the ESGF and work closely with climate impact assessment and regional downscaling teams to ensure maximum
uptake and use of these data in such complementary areas of science; (viii) actively disseminate knowledge generated in
CRESCENDO to fellow scientists, policymakers and the general public.
We will establish the link to the impact modelling community to ensure that the climate simulations can be directly used by them. This refers to the output of the required variables in the required temporal resolution and a bias correction step that is particularly relevant for the simulation of climate change impacts that e.g. depend on the crossing of critical temperature thresholds (WP5.1 and 5.2). In addition, we will design and develop emissions scenarios for the ESM community (ScenarioMIP; WP4.1, Tasks 4.1.1, 4.1.2) and contribute to the interpretation of ScenarioMIP results (WP4.3, Task 4.3.2)
- develop novel methods for populating and analysing the set of new sceanrios
- development and design of a new data set of scenarios
- interpretation of ScenarioMIP results by multiple research communities
- guidance for the impacts and downscaling communities
- communication with impacts-modelling and regional climate downscaling communities
- development and application of bias-correction methods
PIK can further rely on infrastructure such as version control systems for management and storage of model source code, documentation and general model settings. For long-term storage of experiment settings, model input and output datasets, executables, and libraries other archiving services will be used.
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