| 摘要 | At the end of this month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Washington, D.C. for his first visit since his landslide election some 100 days ago. With three U.S. cabinet secretaries and other senior officials dispatched to Delhi since Mr. Modi’s election, the Obama Administration seems aimed at overcoming the somewhat hollow rhetoric that has characterized the relationship in recent years.
This is a welcome approach and one that is necessary to strengthen ties between the two countries. To date, Mr. Modi’s foreign policy has reflected his pro-growth domestic agenda. Those who can deliver opportunities in the near-term will be well-positioned to see benefit in the long-term.
Mr. Modi’s recent trip to Tokyo, for example, resulted in Japan’s pledge to invest $35 billion, over five years, in Indian infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping went to Delhi last week with a pledge of $30.4 billion in investments. Major economies of the world see India today as an attractive destination for investment. The U.S. should seize the moment and make itself India’s preferred economic partner.
The U.S.-India security relationship is one area where the opportunity is ripe to provide a win-win for Mr. Modi’s economic and security agendas. India’s security requirements are well known: Its military requires a massive overhaul, both because of the outdated Soviet-era defense equipment and the need to keep pace with China.
But spending huge amounts of Indian capital overseas for defense procurement is not politically sustainable for Mr. Modi. Thus, the benchmark of long-term security cooperation between the U.S. and India will be foreign direct investment, transfer of technology, co-production and co-development. The Modi government has already taken steps to increase investment in the defense sector, including by raising the foreign direct investment cap to 49%. Furthermore, India is on the cusp of adopting new defense offset policies aimed at relaxing some of the prior policies hampering sales.
To its credit, the U.S. has embraced India’s defense agenda. There is consensus in Washington that maintaining stability in Asia (read China) requires increased security cooperation with a strong regional counterpart—i.e., India. And with declining U.S. defense budgets, industry is more than willing to look overseas to increase sales. India presents the biggest opportunity with plans to spend $100 billion in defense procurement over the next 10 years.
The most significant opportunity for advancing the U.S.-India defense relationship is the defense trade and technology initiative. DTTI represents a U.S. commitment to building an indigenous Indian industrial base by pre-screening projects for co-production, and eventually, co-development. More fundamentally, industrial integration and interdependence will strengthen the foundation for an enduring U.S.-India security relationship and move us beyond a history clouded by mistrust and suspicion.
Though the architects of DTTI deserve credit for conceiving a framework tailored for U.S.-India defense cooperation, the initiative is in need of tangible successes. With more than a dozen programs approved by the U.S. Government, ranging from anti-tank missiles to launch systems for aircraft carriers, India has yet to adopt any. Implementation of DTTI is as much a test of the Modi government directing its bureaucratic processes as it is the U.S. commitment to ensuring the two countries will be, as Secretary of State Kerry has described, “indispensable partners.”
To galvanize DTTI and put it into action will require both progress from the two governments and the push of the private sector. First, President Obama and Prime Minister Modi need to endorse the effort. This will send a strong message to bureaucracies in each country that the DTTI remains a priority.
Second, the leaders should assign tangible timelines for decisions on DTTI proposals. Mr. Modi has a reputation for decisive action, which will be a welcome development for an industry exhausted by endless decision timelines.
Third, the recently resurrected U.S.-India defense working group should formalize a private sector companion group so that the governments can jointly nominate, develop and vet projects with U.S. and Indian companies.
Last, the two governments should prioritize projects where full technology transfer is realizable and consistent with their respective national security policies.
Much ink has been spilled over how to characterize the U.S.-India relationship. Are we allies, partners or friends? Rather than crafting the perfect label, policy makers should spend more time cultivating the ingredients making up the relationship.
The security relationship is one ingredient that offers tremendous promise. It complements the economic agenda of the prime minister and provides India an avenue toward military modernization and indigenization. On the U.S. side, it has the potential to be a hallmark of the Asia “rebalance” and provide far-reaching benefits for U.S. industry.
The blueprint for success is in place. When Mr. Modi comes to town, both sides need to emphasize that the time has come for action.
Mr. Kyl served in the U.S. Senate from 1995-2013 and is senior counsel at Covington & Burling LLP. Mr. Zakheim was general counsel on the House Armed Services Committee from 2011-2013 and is of counsel at Covington & Burling. |
