| 来源类型 | Article
|
| 规范类型 | 评论
|
| Pity the Fed |
| John H. Makin
|
| 发表日期 | 2015-02-05
|
| 出版年 | 2015
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | You should pity the Federal Reserve. Thanks to a string of fairly strong jobs reports (new jobs per month have averaged well over 200,000 for the last year and the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.6 percent), the Fed has positioned itself to start raising rates by mid-year.
The trouble is that nearly every other economic number – capital spending, retail sales, net exports – has been weak. Fourth quarter growth, initially reported at a 2.6 percent pace, will be revised downward, probably to a tepid 1.9 percent pace, or just below the disappointing average U.S. growth rate since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The global economy is even weaker, pushing central banks to cut – not raise – rates to avoid outright deflation and economic contraction. Japan, Europe (via the European Central Bank), Australia and numerous smaller central banks fall into this category. Weak global demand growth has persisted despite substantial liquidity injections via various manifestations of quantitative easing.
Another jobs growth number around 200,000, the most probable outcome for tomorrow, won’t change the Fed’s uncomfortable stance of leaning toward tightening while the rest of the world is easing.
But the timing of expected Fed tightening will keep slipping, probably into 2016, especially as the Fed faces reality and abandons its 3 percent growth forecast. |
| 主题 | Economics
; Economic Fluctuations and Growth
; Monetary Economics
|
| 标签 | Fiscal policy
; jobs
; US economy
|
| URL | https://www.aei.org/articles/pity-fed/
|
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/258153
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
John H. Makin. Pity the Fed. 2015.
|
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