| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 评论 |
| Do voters care about education in 2016? | |
| Frederick M. Hess; Kelsey Hamilton | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-09-22 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Even for those following the 2016 campaigns closely, the odds are that they haven’t seen a lot of attention devoted to education. The Harvard Political Review has observed that candidates “on both sides of the aisle, have ignored a plethora of worthy discussions” and that “the most glaring example is … education policy.” The Huffington Post succinctly headlined one story “Why Education Isn’t a 2016 Campaign Issue.” Laura Moser of Slate has wryly noted, “None of the candidates are talking about education. Like, at all.” Though the presidential candidates have sometimes discussed education on the campaign trail, with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton talking up “free college” and pre-K and GOP nominee Donald Trump occasionally cheering school choice and slamming the Common Core, education has clearly not been at the forefront of the debate. What should we make of this? After all, while education is rarely a top-line issue in national elections, concerns like college costs and the Common Core have drawn substantial attention in recent years. Of course, this is also a year dominated by Trump’s antics, Clinton’s scandals, acts of terror and economic gloom. Have voters lost interest in education? Are candidates misreading the public? Or is something else going on? Fortunately, there is a straightforward way to get a read on this. Gallup regularly asks, “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?” The question has been asked every month in 2016. Respondents write in their answer, and the various answers are then sorted into larger categories. The same question was asked by CBS News twice this year (once jointly with The New York Times). The results show a steady, relatively low level of public interest in education. From January through September, the share of respondents identifying education as the nation’s most important problem never exceeded 5 percent or fell below 2 percent in either the Gallup or CBS polling. In most months, the figure was either 3 or 4 percent. The high points for education came earlier in the year, in February and June, when 5 percent mentioned it. In last week’s September results, the figure was 3 percent. But those numbers don’t tell the full story. The real question is how they compare to other issues. Of the 30 or so problems that Gallup identifies, education has consistently ranked between eighth and 12th. The two CBS News polls showed education trending a bit higher. Among the 20 or so problems identified in those polls, education ranked fifth and eighth. In other words, respondents tend to place education in the upper one-half to one-third of national concerns. These results turn out to be remarkably consistent with issue rankings from recent presidential election cycles. In the final Gallup and the New York Times/CBS News surveys before Election Day in 2012, the share of respondents naming education as a top issue was 4 percent. In 2008, the figure was 1 percent and in 2004 it was 2 percent. Education’s ranking also remained reasonably constant, hovering between ninth and 15th in the Gallup polls. The New York Times/CBS News polls have shown a little more movement, with education fluctuating between fifth and 15th between 2004 and 2016. The big exception to all of this came in 2000, when 13 percent of Gallup and 7 percent of New York Times/CBS News respondents cited education as the nation’s most important problem. That year, Gallup found that voters regarded education as the nation’s single most important problem in an election that played out during a time of peace and prosperity. What to make of these numbers? As we see things, there are a few key takeaways. First, although education is a hotly debated topic with great importance to the public, most voters tend to think of it as a state or local issue. Amidst a backdrop of terrorism and concerns about economic stagnation, education tends to take a backseat in national elections. Second, while education’s polling profile is modest, respondents consistently place it among the top half or top third of Americans’ national concerns, so education is on the map. That said, it’s low enough on the agenda that it’s unlikely to crack a first 100 Days plan or to command a serious investment of political capital. Third, it’s possible that respondents don’t think of issues like college cost or pre-K as educational questions so much as pocketbook ones, though the Gallup and CBS approaches would typically account for that — unless respondents just don’t think of college costs or child care as “national” problems. Lastly, it’s worth noting why 2000 is such an outlier. That year, George W. Bush faced off with Al Gore in an election that hinged on a fierce contest for the center. Education proved a powerful issue in that kind of election, allowing Republican Bush to highlight his compassionate brand of conservatism and Democrat Gore to talk about equal opportunity rather than redistribution. In this year’s polarized and personality-driven contest, such appeals seem almost quaint. For those of us who remember 2000, who’d have ever thought we’d look back on that as the good old days? |
| 主题 | Politics and Public Opinion ; Education ; Elections |
| 标签 | AEI on Campus ; education ; Education Policy ; Presidential Election ; Public opinion polls |
| URL | https://www.aei.org/articles/do-voters-care-about-education-in-2016/ |
| 来源智库 | American Enterprise Institute (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/261192 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frederick M. Hess,Kelsey Hamilton. Do voters care about education in 2016?. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
