| 摘要 | The massacre at a crowded nightclub in Istanbul by ISIS marked the close of a turbulent year. It was also a clear reminder that the once “JV team” Obama so downplayed initially is a broader symptom of the challenges posed by ISIS (even as it sustains territorial losses) and more broadly, radical Islam and extremism.
Outside of the region, populism raged as the world was shaken by economic shifts, political re-alignments, and rising tensions in Asia. No one expected last January that within a span of 12 months Britain would vote to leave the European Union and American voters would choose Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.
Syria: A Pyrrhic Victory
The end-of-year agreement between Russia, Turkey, and Syria to bring “peace” to at least to the parts of the state they control is a substantial turning point in an over five-year-old conflict which has cost over half a million lives and displaced a generation of Syrians. President Assad’s survival, underwritten and now owned by his patrons in Moscow and Tehran with acquiescence of Ankara, is a Pyrrhic victory.
Assad now rules a kingdom of rubble and dislocation. The nation-state that his father built is destroyed and his own-long term survival is an open question. The hundreds of billions of dollars needed to rebuild Syria are not available in the coffers of his patrons. Damascus will soon face the hard reality that it’s one thing to fight a war and tend rubble, it’s a greater challenge to actually govern a state effectively (a failure of his own original governance that helped bring about this conflict in 2011).
Under present conditions, it’s hard to imagine the IMF and World Bank extending credit to President Assad. This year will likely be the year when Assad faces global creditors and their demands for actual reforms if he does seek to turn Syria into an actual functioning state again.
ISIS’s global reach
Beyond Damascus’ territorial reach, ISIS continues to be a challenge. President Obama leaves his successor an unfinished conflict. While ISIS is losing ground in Syria and Iraq, its brand and other radical Islamist groups continue to launch attacks around the world. This has only further fueled the populist backlash against immigrants and refugees across Europe. 2017 is unlikely to see an abatement of ISIS and other extremist groups taking advantage of state collapse in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen and in plotting attacks in the Gulf, Turkey, Africa, Western Europe, and in the US.
However, President-elect Donald Trump brings a new set of eyes, new leadership, and new resolve to root out and destroy these groups. Regional states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Turkey will need to take this as a moment to enhance their cooperation with Washington to more effectively counter these groups. While Riyadh’s anti-ISIS coalition is an important step forward, the substance of what this coalition does in practice beyond military action in Yemen needs to take shape.
Unfinished Conflicts
Libya’s on-going civil war and turbulent political reconciliation will only heighten in 2017 and the absence of a sustainable governance program in the state means that Cairo, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Ankara will need to find common ground. The region cannot expect Washington alone to address this.
A NATO role in Libya may also need to be considered to secure the future of a state at the heart of North Africa’s challenges and one that directly impacts Europe’s security. From Cairo to Algiers, North Africa faces crumbling political institutions, decaying leadership, economic turbulence, and an increasingly volatile domestic security situation.
Yemen’s crisis (this latest incarnation) also needs to find a settlement. It’s not only torn at the stability of the country, but also the broader Arabian Peninsula. Iran has only heightened the conflict further by arming and training the Houthis in their fight with Saudi Arabia and the GCC. Al Qaeda as well has found space to thrive and Saudi’s borders are vulnerable. The conflict’s humanitarian impact has also frayed the relationship between Washington and London and Riyadh. The war’s economic costs have also made Yemen an elephant in the room for any conversation with the new administration and Congressional leadership.
Renewal?
President Elect Donald Trump will bring a fundamentally different mindset and approach to America’s foreign relations. This year will be the year to watch and see how the new administration confronts these challenges. Will they make the difficult choices needed to set America on a better course?
Regional states such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran, and others will have to adjust to this new reality. Global powers such as Russia and China will have to come to terms with a new leadership in Washington that will not accept business as usual nor necessarily be as amicable as some in Moscow hope the President-elect to be. Washington will expect more from its regional allies. This is also a leadership that there are great perils in testing. The days of the unenforced “red lines” looks to be over on January 20th.
2017 offers then to be a year of renewal if difficult choices are made. |
