| 摘要 | Donald Trump is expected to name his Supreme Court pick Tuesday evening. What does the public expect from the nomination? What do people see as the Senate’s proper role in the confirmation process? Should nominees be evaluated on their qualifications and legal background or on their views of issues such as abortion? A review of historical and more recent polls reveals nuanced public views about the process.
Survey questions about nominees to the high court were few and far between before 1987, when President Ronald Reagan nominated Judge Robert Bork. Public opinion scholars Kathy Frankovic and Joyce Gelb note that it was Bork’s nomination that “changed the role of the public opinion and the Court.” Writing in the academic journal PS: Political Science in 1992, they argued that opponents of his nomination “decided that public opinion mattered and effectively campaigned to turn the public against Bork.” A number of advocacy organizations conducted polls at that time. People for the American Way commissioned a benchmark survey in 1986 in anticipation of President Reagan’s first Court nomination. Bork’s opponents were successful. The full Senate rejected his confirmation in October 1987.
A few years later in 1991, pollsters asked many questions about Clarence Thomas’ nomination, but most of those dealt with the sexual harassment allegations that Anita Hill brought against him. Still, in every question that asked about whether he should be confirmed, Americans said that he should.
More recently, the pollsters’ scrutiny of the nominees themselves has been less direct. Instead, the pollsters have focused on the nomination and confirmation processes, and some patterns emerge from the limited polling data available. In response to the handful of questions that ask about the Senate’s role, Americans say it should play an active one in accepting or rejecting a nominee. Americans believe the nominee should publicly state his or her views on issues such as abortion or that the Senate should be aware of them. Solid majorities gave this response in ABC News/Washington Post surveys and in Quinnipiac University surveys of registered voters. Consistent with this view, Americans say it is appropriate for Senators to ask nominees about such issues.
The poll data also show Americans have a refined view of the confirmation process. When pollsters ask whether a nominee should be “required” to state their views on such issues, as two questions from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal from 2005 do, a majority are opposed. Three questions from Fox News in 2003 and 2005 found that only 15 to 20 percent of registered voters said it was acceptable for a Senator to base his or her vote “solely on a nominee’s position on abortion.” Voters appear to reject single-issue litmus tests, but they want to know what nominees believe.
How do people think President Trump should approach Supreme Court nominations? In late November 2016 and in early January 2017, a bare majority of registered voters told Quinnipiac pollsters that then-President-elect Donald Trump should choose a nominee based only on that person’s qualifications. In both surveys, 40 percent said Trump should consider that person’s views on controversial issues.
Even though Americans do not express clear opinions of how much controversial issues should influence Supreme Court nominations and confirmations, many care deeply about the Court’s make-up. In 2016, 21 percent of voters surveyed by the exit poll consortium of the five networks and the Associated Press on Election Day, said appointments to the Supreme Court were the most important factor in deciding their vote. They voted for Trump 56 to 41 percent. Nearly half, 48 percent, said they were an important factor, and this group voted 49 percent for Hillary Clinton, 46 percent for Trump. Fourteen percent said they were a minor factor (they voted for Clinton, 49 to 40 percent), and 14 percent not a factor at all. A majority of this group, 55 percent, voted for Clinton and 37 percent for Trump.
Americans believe Supreme Court nominees are entitled to their opinions on controversial political issues. At the same time, people don’t want the nominee’s positions to overshadow his or her qualifications. The public thinks the Senate should confirm qualified nominees and expects presidents to nominate individuals with the qualifications to merit confirmation. |
