| 来源类型 | Working papers |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| DOI | 10.3929/ethz-a-007560260 |
| Moody oil - What is driving the crude oil price? | |
| Lechthaler, Filippo; Leinert, Lisa | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-10 |
| 出版者 | ETH Zurich, Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The unparalleled surge of the crude oil price after 2003 has triggered a heated scientific and public debate about its ultimate causes. Unexpected demand growth particularly from emerging economies appears to be the most prominently supported reason among academics. We study the price dynamics after 2003 in the global crude oil market using a structural VAR model. We account for structural breaks and approximate market expectations using a time series for media sentiment in order to contribute to the existing literature. We find that forward-looking demand activities rather than demand arising from current needs have played an important role for the run-up in the price of crude oil after 2003. We additionally find that emerging economies have not majorly contributed to the price surge. |
| 主题 | Oil Price ; Spot Market ; Futures Market ; Fundamentals ; Speculation ; Financialization |
| URL | https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/59369 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (Switzerland) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/266714 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lechthaler, Filippo,Leinert, Lisa. Moody oil - What is driving the crude oil price?. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| eth-6070-01.pdf（1564KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
| eth-6070-01.jpg（3KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA |  浏览 | ||
| 文件名： | eth-6070-01.jpg |
| 格式： | JPEG |
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