全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Does the oil price adjust optimally to oil field discoveries?

G2TT

来源类型	Working papers
规范类型	论文
DOI	10.3929/ethz-a-007572167
	Does the oil price adjust optimally to oil field discoveries?
	Leinert, Lisa
发表日期	2012-11
出版者	ETH Zurich, Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH)
出版年	2012
语种	英语
摘要	The Hotelling rule argues that the price for a non-renewable resource adjusts to the shadow value of the resource, reflecting its remaining availability. This study provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. It investigates whether the price of crude oil does adjust to unexpected news about oil field discoveries. The observed price reaction is compared with a prediction of the price decline as derived from the Hotelling model. This study finds evidence for an adjustment of the price to news about greater resource availability: the price of crude oil declines on average by 0.88% on discovery days. The degree of adjustment to the new level of scarcity is not found to differ significantly from the social optimum. Thus, there is evidence for the existence of a shadow cost component - a necessary pre-requisite for the Hotelling rule to hold.
主题	Non-renewable resources ; Oil price ; Exhaustible resources
URL	https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/59370
来源智库	Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (Switzerland)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/266715
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Leinert, Lisa. Does the oil price adjust optimally to oil field discoveries?. 2012.

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