| 来源类型 | Working papers |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| DOI | 10.3929/ethz-b-000338148 |
| How effective was the UK carbon tax? A machine learning approach to policy evaluation | |
| Abrell, Jan; Kosch, Mirjam; Rausch, Sebastian | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-04 |
| 出版者 | ETH Zurich, Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Carbon taxes are commonly seen as a rational policy response to climate change, but little is known about their performance from an ex-post perspective. This paper analyzes the emissions and cost impacts of the UK CPS, a carbon tax levied on all fossil-fired power plants. To overcome the problem of a missing control group, we propose a novel approach for policy evaluation which leverages economic theory and machine learning techniques for counterfactual prediction. Our results indicate that in the period 2013-2016 the CPS lowered emissions by 6.2 percent at an average cost of €18 per ton. We find substantial temporal heterogeneity in tax-induced impacts which stems from variation in relative fuel prices. An important implication for climate policy is that a higher carbon tax does not necessarily lead to higher emissions reductions or higher costs. |
| 主题 | Carbon tax ; Carbon pricing ; Electricity ; Coal ; Natural gas ; United Kingdom ; Carbon Price Surcharge ; Policy evaluation ; Causal inference ; Machine learning ; Climate policy |
| URL | https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/338148 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (Switzerland) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/266807 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Abrell, Jan,Kosch, Mirjam,Rausch, Sebastian. How effective was the UK carbon tax? A machine learning approach to policy evaluation. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| WP-19-317.pdf（4075KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
| WP-19-317.jpg（3KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA |  浏览 | ||
| 文件名： | WP-19-317.jpg |
| 格式： | JPEG |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
