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The fact that declines in output since the Great Recession have parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output will not return to previous trends. We show that real-time estimates of potential output for the U.S. and other countries respond gradually and similarly to both transitory and permanent shocks to output. Observing revisions in measures of potential output therefore tells us little about whether changes in actual output will be permanent or not. Some structural VAR methodologies can avoid these shortcomings. These approaches suggest a much more limited decline in potential output following the Great Recession.

Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Mauricio Ulate. 2018. “The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output” BPEA Conference Draft, Fall.

The authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this paper or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this paper. They are currently not officers, directors, or board members of any organization with an interest in this paper. No outside party had the right to review this paper before circulation.