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Climate change is a global problem that calls for global actions. The Kyoto Protocol under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is currently the only international climate regime that sets legally-binding commitments for countries to mitigate climate change. Commitments under the protocol cover only the years between 2008 and 2012, however, leaving any targets for the ensuing years to be negotiated in the future.

The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16, 2005 (followed by the first meeting of the Parties [COP/MOP 1] in Montreal, Nov.-Dec. 2005). The Kyoto Protocol’s entry into force is a significant step forward for global action against climate change. As it covers the period up to 2012, countries are now aware that discussions must begin on commitments beyond 2012.

This paper is the final report of a three-year research project on climate regime beyond 2012. It was mainly conducted by the National Institute for Environmental Studies and the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES). Names of the project participants are listed at the end of the report in Appendix 1. The entire funding of the project - 66,848,000 yen (about US$607,000) in total for fiscal years 2003 to 2005 - came from the Global Environmental Research Fund of Japan’s Ministry of the Environment. The aim of this project was to come up with several different options for a future climate change regime beyond 2012. These options include not only the final overall structure of international institutions involved, but also scenarios for negotiations that could lead to an international agreement on those institutions, and evaluation of the regimes from various perspectives - including effects on the environment, equity, and the economy - as well as other pros and cons.

To achieve its challenging aim, the project applied the scenario planning approach, the details of which are elaborated in the main text as well as in Appendix 2. In the end, the project team felt that this was a useful and creative approach to help formulate a comprehensive picture of how the climate debate is likely to develop in the coming years.

The project team would like to thank many officials at Ministry of the Environment of Japan for the funding, for the opportunities to discuss policy making related to climate change, and for sharing their views. The team would also like to thank the experts who accepted our interviews and enlightened us with their perspectives.