| 来源类型 | Papers
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | https://doi.org/10.26889/9781784670535
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| India’s Oil Demand: On the Verge of ‘Take-Off’? |
| Amrita Sen; Anupama Sen
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| 发表日期 | 2016-03-07
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 页码 | 6
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 概述 | Over the last decade, non-OECD oil demand growth, and by extension global oil demand growth, was driven mainly by China, which accounted for half to two-thirds of this growth. However, since the Chinese government embarked on a deliberate policy of rebalancing, the country’s annual demand growth has slowed to under 0.3 mb/d, compared to an […] |
| 摘要 | Over the last decade, non-OECD oil demand growth, and by extension global oil demand growth, was driven mainly by China, which accounted for half to two-thirds of this growth. However, since the Chinese government embarked on a deliberate policy of rebalancing, the country’s annual demand growth has slowed to under 0.3 mb/d, compared to an average demand growth of over 0.5 mb/d in the 10 years prior to 2013. In this new era of slower Chinese growth, a new contender has emerged: India, which in 2015 was the main driver of non-OECD oil demand growth. In this paper we argue that in addition to the boost from low oil prices, structural and policy-driven changes are underway which could result in India’s oil demand ‘taking off’ in a similar way to China’s during the late 1990s, when Chinese oil demand was at levels roughly equivalent to current Indian oil demand. These changes include: a rise in per capita oil consumption (reflected in rising motorization of the Indian economy), a massive programme of road construction (amounting to 30 km per day), and a push towards increasing the share of manufacturing in GDP by 2022 (which could increase oil consumption by at least a third based on a conservative linear estimate). This paper also examines the implications of a take-off in domestic demand for India’s recently acquired status as a net petroleum product exporter.
Executive Summary |
| 主题 | Country and Regional Studies
; Oil
; Oil & Middle East Programme
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| 关键词 | construction
Demand
India
manufacturing
Oil
transportation
WPM 65
WPM65
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| URL | https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/indias-oil-demand/
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| 来源智库 | Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (United Kingdom)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/312399
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Amrita Sen,Anupama Sen. India’s Oil Demand: On the Verge of ‘Take-Off’?. 2016.
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文件名：
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India’s-Oil-Demand-On-the-Verge-of-Take-off-WPM-65.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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