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来源类型 | Energy Comments |
规范类型 | 评论 |
OPEC Deal or No Deal? This is Not the Question | |
Bassam Fattouh; Amrita Sen | |
发表日期 | 2016-10-28 |
出版年 | 2016 |
页码 | 4 |
语种 | 英语 |
概述 | This comment argues that while Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to cooperate, this does not imply that the fundamentals of Saudi oil policy have necessarily changed nor that the kingdom would accept any deal irrespective of the key principles that have been guiding Saudi oil policy so far. Based on its historical record, it is […] |
摘要 | This comment argues that while Saudi Arabia has shown willingness to cooperate, this does not imply that the fundamentals of Saudi oil policy have necessarily changed nor that the kingdom would accept any deal irrespective of the key principles that have been guiding Saudi oil policy so far. Based on its historical record, it is possible to identify four such fundamental principles, which need to be upheld for the success of the negotiations in the OPEC November meeting: On each of these counts, the challenges facing Saudi Arabia are immense and the probability that these barriers will be overcome by November remains low. However, there is a realization within OPEC that failure to reach any sort of agreement in November will be very bearish for the oil market with the potential to erase all recent price gains. This would continue to put pressure on OPEC to try to reach some sort of agreement, though such a potential deal may not be as neat as many in the market are expecting and OPEC may just decide to postpone some of the difficult decisions on individual quotas to a later date and agree on a collective cut in the hope that the market will be as forgiving as after the Algiers meeting, which is highly unlikely. Should there be no clear agreement on cutting output and how to allocate individual quotas, Saudi signaling about cooperation will most likely continue, as it has no interest in talking prices down. But in terms of actual volumes it may be a different story altogether, with the possibility of output being maintained at high levels, or even increased until a collective agreement is reached, delaying the rebalancing process. This is a risk that both producers and the market should not ignore. |
主题 | Energy Policy ; Oil ; Oil & Middle East Programme |
关键词 | Iran Iraq Oil Markets OPEC Russia Saudi Arabia |
URL | https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/opec-deal-no-deal-not-question/ |
来源智库 | Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/312428 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bassam Fattouh,Amrita Sen. OPEC Deal or No Deal? This is Not the Question. 2016. |
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文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
OPEC-Deal-or-No-Deal(912KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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