| 摘要 |
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The principal aim of this report has been to draw attention to the impact of China's recent crude oil import increase and the possibility of it's oil strategy change. Conducting the analysis on the oil supply balance and policy in China and North-East Asia, we try to figure out the problems and tasks of Korea in its oil import pattern.
According to the result of oil demand forecast by ARDL model, China's oil demand will be 11.4 mil. b/d in 2020, much higher than the 7.6 mil. b/d forecasted by CNOOC.
It means China's own demand forecast underestimates the potential of its future demand increase. Since the middle east dependency of Asia-Pacific area will also increase from 75% now to 80% in 2005, and to 85% in 2010, the vulnerability of oil supply in this area is expected to aggravate.
Regarding China's policy on oil sector, the government may continue to maintain control over the oil sector, introducing market liberalization and reforms at the margin.
Though there is little doubt that the traditional policy of self-reliance in oil, the ability to deliver the required oil from the domestic production will decline in the longer term regardless of the government strategy.
Given the government's conservative position to regard oil sector as a strategically important one, China may postpone any long-term oil strategy decisions and market reforms, and this ultimately speed up the pace of losing self-reliance in oil. Chinese Government's strategic control over oil supply will have greater impact on the uncertainty and vulnerability of Asian oil market as its linkage with the world oil market becomes more intimate.
Under the condition of declining share of non-Middle East countries export capability, the bargaining power of Korea in terms of price and other trade conditions are likely to be worsened by the emergence of China as a significant purchaser of Middle East crude oil.
In response to these circumstances, the main implications for Korea's strategies to enhance the oil security and oil policy are as follows.
First, it is desirable to adopt more flexible way of securing required oil by gradually increasing the share of non-Middle East crude in the spot market.
Second, our refining industry need more investment in cracking and de-sulphurizing units to in preparation to the shortage of low-sulphur light crude oil supply in the region.
Third, we should promote the oil products trade among North East Asian countries and be ready to set up common oil market in the region. Fourth, it is required to initiate regional cooperation in the development of indigenous energy resources such as PNG project in Russia.
Finally, neighbouring countries like Korea and Japan should find a way to expand their investment and cooperation with Chinese oil and energy sector.
Keywords: China, Oil Consumption, Oil Demand Forecast, Crude Oil Import, Oil market in Northeast Asia
139 pages, 65 refs., 15 figs., 44 tabs.
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Language: Korean |
