| 摘要 |
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Energy security is an issue of multidimensional characteristics. In its basic meaning, it refers to securing reliable and affordable energy supplies that are sufficient to support social, economic and military needs, while at the same time, environmentally sustainable. Therefore, energy security is a core prerequisite for sustainable development.
Heretofore, general concept of energy security does not adequately reflect recent developments surrounding energy industries, for it focuses on stability of oil supply. Moreover, there exists disagreement with the patterns of energy crisis that could take place.
This study first examines the elements that could cause energy crisis and the patterns the crisis could exhibit, and offers a comprehensive concept of energy security with consideration of various aspects that energy is interconnected with.
The recent perception of energy crisis is typically concerned with risk of price soaring ("price risk"), and also is confined to oil.
Yet when the elements that could cause energy crisis are examined from various angles, it can be realized that the internal and contingent elements of energy crisis could generate a crisis in terms of supply shortage, that is, the "volume risk".
For example, while in the case of oil or coal where international market is relatively well developed, any shortage of supplied quantities could be translated to a price hike, in the case of LNG any contingent element such as terrorism on energy production facilities could cause a quantity shortage to consuming country due to the lack of spot trade capacity and rigidity of demand, depending on the timing of such incident and conditions of surplus spot cargoes.
As an indicator of Korea's energy security status, this study conducted an Input Output analysis of the crude oil price rise.
When the effects of a 10% increase of crude oil price are considered on the output levels of 1995 and 1998, the result shows that reductions of 0.39% and 1.11%, respectively. This implies that the economic structure of 1998 is more vulnerable to the risk of an oil price fluctuation than that of 1995.
Also in this study, various policies on energy security of Korea have been examined. It seems that the fundamental direction and measures of overall security policies are effective and proper.
However, there are rooms for improvement in the coherency and some minor details.
In consideration of the changing environment of energy markets, it is crucial to recognize that physical shortage of energy supply and/or energy price fluctuation are no longer an extraordinary incident, and that they are continuously changing variables that influence energy supply and demand, and cost of energy consumption, much like weather conditions or exchange rate fluctuations.
This line of perception would push energy industries towards restoration or facilitation of market element, and thereby supports energy policies that are conducive to the enhancement of ability to flexibly absorb any price or quantity shocks.
202 pages. 90 refs., 9 figs., 39 tabs.
, Language: Korean |
