| 来源类型 | Research papers
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| Projection of Energy, Environmental, Economic Indicators and Evaluation of Relevant Policies Through Developing a Quaterly Econometric Simulation Model |
| K. J. Boo
|
| 发表日期 | 2003-12-31
|
| 出版年 | 2003
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 |
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This study assesses the effectiveness of GHG mitigation measures, measures their impacts on national economy, and evaluates the cost-effec- tiveness of each measures. In this study, dynamic simulation model, based on macro-economic and econometric theories, was developed. This empirical simulation model investigates the ways in which energy, environment, and economy interact as well as evaluates the impacts of GHG mitigation measures on energy consumption, environment, and macro-economic indicators.
The simulation model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an environmental module and an economic module. Each module consists of identities as well as stochastic equations, totalling 72 equations (35 stochastic equations and 37 identities).
To test the predictive accuracy and stability of the model which indicate a model's robustness, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is employed as a backcasting technique.
Version 4.1 of
EViews
was the modeling software program chosen for this effort. The result of backcasting, MAPEs were within an acceptable range for most of endogenous variables.
This macro-economic model is used to simulate 2 major policy interventions.
This study considers only carbon tax for scenario analysis.
Two basic scenarios were constructed: namely, 1) 50,000Won/TC and 2) 100,000Won/TC.
Major findings from this policy simulation are: 1) impact of carbon taxes in proportion with the relative price of each fuel as well as the carbon content of each fuel.; 2) reduction rate in CO2 emissions is shrinking as carbon tax increases; 3) carbon tax reduces the energy intensity as well as carbon intensity (carbon coefficients); 4) economic loss by carbon tax could be partially made up for through reinvestment of carbon taxes into energy efficiency and renewable energy programs.
134 pages. 105 refs., 31 figs., 21 tabs.
, Language: Korean |
| URL | http://www.keei.re.kr/web_keei/en_publish.nsf/by_report_year/4A995D933BD7B7B849256E2E00076D53?OpenDocument
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| 来源智库 | Korea Energy Economics Institute (Republic of Korea)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/322269
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
K. J. Boo. Projection of Energy, Environmental, Economic Indicators and Evaluation of Relevant Policies Through Developing a Quaterly Econometric Simulation Model. 2003.
|
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