| 摘要 |
After the World Summit on Sustainable Development, held in the South Africa in 2002, the discussion on linkages between sustainable development and energy have been proliferating.
In order to establish energy strategies for sustainable development in Korea, multi-year study is being carried out. This 'first year' study would play a role as foundation of the researches in the coming years. The study discusses the concepts of sustainable energy future based on discussion of CSD, WSSD, and IEA related to sustainability. Considering the significance of energy efficiency in relation to the sustainable energy, this study analyzes energy consumption pattern and efficiency in manufacturing sector, comprising eight sectors for the past 20 years in Korea.
Sustainable energy has to satisfy the following: safe and reliable energy supply (economical sustainability), environmentally friendly supply and demand system (environmental sustainability), and socially receptive capacity (social sustainability). Particularly, the energy efficiency, which is one of the most important taskes linked to sustainability, will simultaneously contribute to economical and environmental sustainabilities.
This study focused on the analysis of energy efficiency of the manufacturing sector as a way to assess the sustainability of energy system in Korea. Manufacturing sector comprised more than half of final energy consumption in Korea, while leading economic development.
The past 20 years' changes in energy consumption in manufacturing sector (1981~2001) have been anaylized using 'Log Divisia' decomposition methodology. This study divided the historic data into three periods, i.e. the 80's (1980~1990), the 90's (1990~1997), and after the financial crisis (1997~2002).
The average annual energy consumption rate increased by 8.3% in the 1980's. The decomposition analysis showed that contribution of production effect was 11.2% to this increase rate of 8.3% while industrial structural effect contributed 0.8%, and the energy intensity effects contributed (-3.7)%. In 90's, the average rate of energy consumption rate increased by 11.5% per annum where the contribution of production effect was 8.0%, that of industrial structural effect was 0.3%, and that of energy intensity effect was (+3.3)%.
To summarize, firstly, production effect overwhelmingly had influenced in increase in energy consumption in both 1980's and 1990's. However, contribution of production effect showed down from the beginning of the 90's. Secondly, industrial structural effects are all marked with positive sign (+) although the size is not large. This implies industrial structure proceeded towards more energy intensive structure. Thirdly and most importantly, the sign of the energy intensity effect was negative (-) in the 80's, but positive (+) in the 90's. This indicates that the energy efficiency was improved when high oil price maintained in the 80's; however, when the oil price was very low in the 90's, the energy efficiency deteriorated.
The result after the financial crisis in 1997 shows quite different outcomes compared to the previous. Four years after the financial crisis, the annual average energy consumption rate increase was as low as 2.8%, where contribution of the production effect was 7.3%, that of the industrial structure effect was (-5.7%), and that of the energy intensity effectwas (+1.3)%. The overall energy intensity had been decreasing at (-4.3%)/year. However, the result of decomposition analysis indicated that the contribution of the energy intensity was positive (+), which implies that the energy efficiency has rather worsen. Therefore, the reason for the low energy consumption rate and low elasticity of the energy?value added was owing to the structural transformation to the less energy intensive structure in industrial structure (-5.7%). It is important to note that, on the whole, the energy efficiency has gone downhill during this period.
In conclusion, the energy efficiency, which is the key feature in establishing strategies for sustainable development, nowadays requires strong political approaches, and the research in the coming years would include the analysis of the energy efficiency and its potential strategies for realizing energy efficiency potential, along with the development of the analytical models.
147 pages. 37 refs., 15 figs., 46 tabs.
, Language: Korean |
