| 摘要 | ��
Research Purpose
The focus of this report is to provide an projection and procedure include methodology for forecasting future greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial process sectors: mineral production, chemical industry, metal production, halocarbon production and consumption of halocarbon and SF6.
To estimate emission projections, we adopt an intensity (ratio of emission divided by activity) method and an econometric method.
Summary
This research prospects the amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the sector of industrial process, which is one of major GHG sources. Since GHG emission from the sector of industrial process result from non-fuel combustion, it has totally different characteristics from that by energy combustion.
GHG emission of the sector of industrial process is simply estimated by multiplication of industrial activity and emission factor. However, since each industrial activity contains characteristics of industrial process, the object of this study is to project GHG emission by estimating activity of each industrial process. Thus, in order to estimate the amounts of GHG emission, we adopt both an intensity method (ratio of emission divided by activity) and an econometric method.
The amount of GHG emissions in the sector of industrial process is estimated by mineral production, chemical industry, metal production, halocarbon production and consumption of halocarbon and SF6 respectively. Especially, for cement industry and metal industry which are major emission sources, we prospected the amounts of emission through the model reflecting production capacity and other economic conditions based on the existing researches in estimating their activities. In other words, consumption of steel in metal industry is forecasted through a time varying model.
Research Results & Policy Suggestions
Scenario analyses are classified into reference case, high growth case(upper limit) and low growth case(lower limit) to reference case.
In case of reference, the amount of GHG emission in the sector of industrial process in reference case is prospected to be 22.1 million tons of carbon. This estimate is the level increased by around 30 percents, compared to 16.9 million tons of carbon in 2002. In the reference case, the average annual growth rate of emission amount is expected to be 3.4 percents during the period of 2005-2010. In high growth case, the emission amount is forecast to be increased from 18.9 million tons of carbon in 2005 to 23.1 million tons of carbon in 2010 with average annual growth rate of 4.1 percents. According to the result of low growth case, the average growth rate of emission will average 3.1 percents.
This study is meaningful in terms that this study is the first trial for the projection of the greenhouse gas emissions in industrial process. However, this study may have a little unrefined part in methodology. Thus, we need a more delicate methodology, considering the need for more accurate outlook data on mandatory burden of reduction of greenhouse gas in the future.
135 pages, 21 refs., 23 figs., 31 tabs., Language: Korean |
