| 摘要 | ��
Research Purpose
The Unite Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCC) was established to prevent global warming in 1992, and Koyto Protocol was made to prepare specific guidelines to attain the reduction target of greenhouse gases emissions. Since Kotyo Protocol is going to operate in early 2005 due to Russia's ratification, Annex I countries have to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the 1990's emissions in the first commitment period(2008-2012).
Even though Korea does not have a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the first commitment period, Korea have to join the global effort to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change in near future. The developed countries are asking Korea to join the UNFCC to reduce greenhouse gases since Korea is an advanced developing country. Korea is ranked high in the index of per capita GDP, emission level of greenhouse gases, per capita energy consumption.
Korean government has to prepare strategy for the reduction target since the bargaining for second commitment will start in late 2005. Forecasting the effect on which the policy and measures affect the economy will help the government choose the policy and measures to reduce emissions.
The effort to reduce emissions needs resources. For example, a firm has to introduce more expensive technology or to switch it's fuel more expensive clean fuel to reduce greenhouse gases. As a result, the effort will affect the productive efficiency of manufacturing industry as well as the economy. The government has to develop the sustainable policy and measures to attain economic growth and emission reduction. The information on which policy and measures will affect the productive efficiency can help the government to choose the sustainable policy and measures.
The main purpose of this study is to estimate the impact on which that possible mitigation policies and measures will affect the productive efficiency of manufacturing industry. Because of information availability, only three kinds of mitigation policies to reduce greenhouse gases are introduced in this study, that is, fuel switch from dirty fuels to clean fuel like natural gas, imposition of carbon tax on fuel consumption, buying the permissions in the market. Environmental target is that each industry sector reduces its own emissions by 10% in 2000. Policy scenarios as change of reduction target, non-free allocation of permissions, structural change of manufacturing industry are included in this study.
Manufacturing industry is divided into seven sectors excluding other manufacturing industry because it is a outlier. Among outputs, value added is good output, and greenhouse gases emisson is a bad output. Inputs are energy consumption, labor, capital and cost of raw material. Directional technology distance function is used to estimate productive efficiency measurement because it is the proper model when there are some bad outputs among outputs. Directional technology distance function can measure the increase in efficiency in case of reduction of bad outputs.
The model estimates the production frontier which the seven sectors can not increase the outputs and can not decrease bad outputs and inputs any more, then measures the distance between each sector and the production frontier based on the directional vector(inputs and outputs in 2000). The productive efficiency is defined as the distance between the frontier and each sector.
Summary
Fuel switch strategy is the way for the sector to change their fuels from dirty fuel to clean fuel like natural gas. Specifically, fuel switch in this study is to change the fuel oil, bituminous coal, anthracite coal to city gas. Because of the difficulty in the calculation of emission factors, electricity is excluded in fuel switch strategy. Capital cost is excluded for simplification, so the cost of fuel switch includes only fuel cost.
The cost switching from fuel oil to natural gas is the lowest (84,270won/CO2 ton), the next lowest alternative is switching from anthracite to natural gas(160,140won/CO2 ton), and the highest way is switching from bituminous to city gas(197,530won/CO2 ton).
According to the analysis of fuel switching potentials, switching strategy from fuel oil to natural gas will be the used in the sectors of food, textile, wood and paper, petrochemical, fabricat metal. Pottery will reduce 3.8% of emissions switching from fuel oil to city gas, and reduce the remaining 6.2% switching from bituminous coal to natural gas. The sector of basic metal will reduce the half of the target switching from fuel oil to natural gas, and reduce the half switching from anthracite coal to city gas.
Carbon tax of $2.75/CO2 ton(3,464won/CO2 ton) is calculated as optimum level to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases by 10%. The price of city gas will increase by the lowest level as 3.74%(11,109won/TOE) due to imposition of carbon tax, anthracite coal will increase in the price by 14.13%(13,978won/TOE), the bituminous coal will experience the highest increase in price as 20.67%(13,457won/TOE).
The market price of permissions is estimated as $20/CO2 ton(25,3030won/CO2 ton) under the same amount of tax revenue that the manufacturing industry will pay in case of carbon tax. All prices are 2000 constant prices.
Followings are the estimation results that the policy and measures will affect the productive efficiency of manufacturing industry. First, the exclusion of bad outputs in efficiency measurement will distort the true measurement of productive efficiency and the choice of policy and measures. In case of exclusion of bad output, fuel switch and permission purchasing strategy will decrease the efficiency, but carbon tax can improve the efficiency. However, in case of inclusion of bad output fuel switch can increase the efficiency comparing with the decrease of efficiency under the exclusion of bad output. The measurement of productive efficiency in terms of sustainable development should give higher efficiency score to the economic agents with less bad outputs with same amount of inputs and good outputs. As a result, the bad outputs should be included in the efficiency measurement to prevent the distortion of policy choice.
Second, all industry are productive efficient except for wood and paper in 2000. The inefficiency of wood and paper is 0.01137, which means that wood and paper can increase good output(valu added) by 1.137% and decrease inputs and bad output(emissions of greenhouse gases) by 1.137% comparing with the current inputs and outputs. The productive inefficiency of wood and paper industry comes from scale inefficiency when the inefficiency is decomposed into scale inefficiency and pure technical inefficiency. So the wood and paper industry has to increase the production scale to improve the productive efficiency.
Third, fuel switch and carbon tax can increase the productive efficiency, but permission purchasing may decrease the productive efficiency. The magnitude of efficiency improvement of fuel switch is greater than that of the carbon tax. Fuel switch can increase efficiency of manufacturing industry by 1.068% point on average, and carbon tax can improve efficiency by 0.691% point. Since the reduction of greenhouse gases is greater than the reduction of input(energy consumption) and good output, these two measures can increase the efficiency. But permission purchasing strategy may decrease efficiency by 0.146% point. Permission purchasing strategy can not be compared with other two measures because of assumptions. As a result, the fuel switch is better than carbon tax in terms of sustainable development policies.
Fourth, energy intensive industry, especially pottery and basic metal will suffer high degree of decrease of productive efficiency, but fabricat metal industry will have relative advantage in efficiency. Only pottery and basic metal industry will suffer the decrease of efficiency, but the efficiency of metal industry can improve by the highest degree under fuel switch, which can increase the efficiency of all industries. The efficiency of pottery and basic metal industry will decrease the highest, but the efficiency of fabricat metal will decrease the lowest under permission purchasing strategy, which decrease the efficiency of all industries.
Fifth, the different pattern that emission reduction policy and measures will affect industries' efficiency comes from the structure of energy consumption and the energy intensities. Pottery and basic metal industry have high proportion of coal in energy consumption, and high intensity of greenhouse gases and energy consumption per value added. However, fabricat metal industry has high proportion of clean energy in energy consumption and low intensities of greenhouse gases and energy per value added.
Sixth, the scenario that each sector reduces 10% of industry average emissions instead of its own emissions has relative advantage in terms of efficiency. Non-free allocation of permissions will increase the abatement cost, and decrease the efficiency and competitiveness comparing with the case of grandfathering. Under the higher-value added structure of manufacturing industry will increase efficiency.
The fact that this study does not evaluate the cost effectiveness of policy and measures is one of weak points. Energy efficient technologies and other technologies emitting less greenhouse gases are not included in this analysis. The information of marginal abatement cost for all industry sectors can identify the social benefit of emission trading systems comparing with regulation of command and control. The effect of substitution among fuels in case of carbon tax is not included in this study because of the restriction of information on cross-price elasticity.
Research Results & Policy Suggestions
Bad output should be included in the measurement of productive efficiency for the choice of sustainable development policy and measures. Fuel switch strategy will increase the efficiency of manufacturing industry, but it will need huge amount of money. The energy intensive industries like pottery and basic metal will suffer adverse impact in case of introduction of policy and measures. As a result, government has to switch fuels to cleaner fuels, and has to adopt stronger energy conservation measures to reduce greenhouse gases emissions.
113 pages, 44 refs., 2 figs., 22 tabs., Language: Korean |
