| 摘要 | ��
1. Research Purpose
Energy has become an essential element in attaining sustainable development especially since the World Summit on Sustainable Development(WSSD) held in South Africa in 2002. Commision on Sustainable Development(CSD) of U.N. plans to lead the global discussion on the role of energy in the year of 2006 and 2007. The Kyoto protocol, which became effective in February this year, also signify the importance of energy in the sustainable development.
The energy sector in Korea expanded greatly in supporting economic development over the last four decades. Recently, the energy sector is experiencing drastic qualitative change. The development of environmentally sound energy system becomes one of the major tasks in the energy sector. In addition, ensuring public acceptance for energy facility is now an challenging task.
This is the third year study of the multi-year study for deriving strategies for the sustainable energy future in Korea. In doing so, firstly, this study analyses implication of the discussions of the IEA, CSD, and WSSD. Secondly, this study performs the decomposition analysis on the major elements of energy consumption in order to investigate the sustainability of Korean energy system. In particular, the decomposition analysis focuses the energy consumption of the manufacturing sector, which represent more than half of the energy consumption. In addition, decomposition analysis on carbon intensity is also performed reflecting the importance of lower carbon energy system toward sustainable development. Thirdly, based on the previous analysis and the experiences of major other countries, such as U.K., Japan, and U.S.A., strategies and major elements toward sustainable energy future in Korea will be discussed.
2. Summary
The concept of sustainable development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs now includes three pillar of economic, environmental, social sustainability.
In translating these concept into energy sector, main elements of the sustainable energy future are energy supply security, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and new energy technology. Among these, energy efficiency is the element to enhance both economic and environmental sustainability.
This study analyses energy consumption and carbon intensity over the last 23 years, as part of investigating sustainability of manufacturing sector, by employing the most advanced Divisia decomposition methodology.
The share of manufacture sector in the final energy consumption increased from 41.0% in 1981 to 50.3% in 2004. This indicates the importance of manufacture sector in devising sustainable energy strategies. The elasticity of energy consumption with respect to the value added decreased drastically to 0.32 from 0.97 since the financial crisis in 1997.
To analyse factors for these decrease, energy consumption between 1981 to 2004 was decomposed into three factors by employing 'log divisia' methodology, over five periods of '81-'85, '85-'90, '90-'97, '97-'01, and '01-'04. Three factors are the production effect, energy intensity effect, and industry structural effect. Firstly, production effect was the most influential for the increase in energy consumption over the entire period. The production effects was 7.6%, 7.4%, and 7.9% respectively over the year of ��90-��97, ��97-��01, and ��01-��04. Secondly, the worsening of energy intensity contributed to the increase in the energy consumption only over the year ��90-��97. Thirdly, over the year ��01-��04, the industry structural effect contributed to the drastic decrease in the growth of energy consumption, with (-)4.4%. These factor decomposition analysis revealed that the recent slow-down of energy consumption is mainly due not to the efficiency intensity effect but to the industry structural effect. This confirms the strong need for active role of energy efficiency measures.
Similar decomposition analysis was performed on the changes in the carbon intensity over the same period into four factors. Over the year ��81-��85, carbon intensity improved by 29%, on which the improvement of energy intensity contributed mostly. Over the year ��85-��90, carbon intensity improved by 7%. Over the year ��90-��97 carbon intensity deteriorated by 31% with the energy intensity contributing mostly. Over ��97-��01, carbon intensity improved by 20% with energy intensity contributing mostly. However, over the ��01-��04 where carbon intensity improved by 14%, the most contributing factor was the industry structural effect. Consequently, the decomposition analysis of energy consumption as well as carbon intensity indicated the same factors that the recent slow-down of energy consumption was mainly due to the industry structural effect toward less-energy intensive industry structure, but not from energy efficiency improvement. This implies the need for strong measures for the energy efficiency.
3. Research Results & Policy Suggestions
Importing almost entire energy requirement, Korea need to establish sustainable energy future by ensuring adequate and affordable access to energy in an economically viable, an environmentally sound, socially acceptable way. It will require applying energy efficient, environmentally sound, and cost-effective technologies to all sectors of the economy.
The case of U.K. signifies the importance of linking energy efficiency measures with lower carbon strategies. The U.K. would put itself on a path towards a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of some 60% from current levels by about 2050. Japan emphasize the importance of energy efficiency as in the Top-Runner program. U.S.A. is expanding R&DD on new energy technologies.
Reflecting the experiences of other countries, Korea needs to accelerate the policies and measures for energy efficiency, linked with carbon abatement measures. Korea also need to consider the transition from current energy system, which centers on larger, concentrated, supply-oriented system, toward sustainable energy system, which also involves the elements of distributed, demand-oriented, and small and medium sized system. Decision making system in the energy sector requires innovation from the current top-down and information monopolistic system to the sustainable system which takes the bottom-up, information-sharing, participatory, conflict- settling approach.
Institutional framework needs to be established for monitoring and analysis and feedback of energy efficiency policies and measures in order to enhance the effectiveness of the energy efficiency policies and measures.
The market function needs to be fully utilized. The comprehensive review on the current energy price system should be conducted. The energy prices need to internalize the external environmental effects from energy use. The energy prices should also employ lifetime full cost pricing approach.
For sustainable energy system, energy policies are to be integrated with transportation and urban development programs, which are long-lived.
The role of the market should be emphasized for enhancing energy securities. The flexible energy system and economic system built on the market will be more effective in tackling high oil prices. The sustainable energy future requires a long term view with which new and renewable energy and hydrogen energy are to be developed.
Sustainable energy future in Korea hinges upon the successful implementation of policies and measures on energy efficiency, energy security, new energy, renewable energy, and technology development with market mechanism fully utilized.
109 pages., 43 refs., 12 figs., 21 tabs. |
