| 摘要 | ��
1. Research Objectives
In Annex I countries, national communication should submit the report including emission inventories, trends and policies of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) to UNFCCC. GHG source inventories could be used to estimate GHG emissions accurately and subsequently used for the reduction commitment of GHGs emissions. However, the reliability of emission inventories has been rarely verified for the quality and accuracy of those.
The GHGs emission inventories from waste including landfills, wastewater handling, and waste incineration should be accurate to produce reliable data for the countries preparing mandatory report to UNFCCC. In Korea, even though the emission inventories have been annually reported by the government, the GHGs emission inventories were not verified and their uncertainties were not considered at all because the method has never been developed to estimate uncertainties associated with the GHGs emissions. In this study the main objectives are 1) to apply tier 2 method to estimate emissions and uncertainties associated with landfills and 2) to investigate the variables affecting uncertainties with landfills and wastewater handling. To accomplish these objectives, previous studies in Korea related to the GHGs emissions from waste were examined to identify the problems in inventories and Monte Carlo analysis was used to estimate emissions and uncertainties from landfills as recommended in IPCC Good Practice Guidelines.
2. Summary
In this study Monte Carlo analysis was applied to establish the tier 2 method in Korea using the GHGs data obtained from field campaigns in landfills. The variables used to estimate GHGs emissions and those uncertainties should be accurate to produce reliable emission estimates. Two variables, DOC (degradable organic carbon) and F (fraction by volume of CH4 in landfill gas) should be obtained by performing waste generation studies and sampling of different landfill within a country to apply tier 2 method. Tier 2 method requires data on current, as well as historic waste quantities, composition and disposal practices for several years. The SOPs (standard operating procedures) used to measure surface emission in landfills should be established for field campaign to produce accurate data because the data produced without SOPs can give big uncertainties to the emission estimation. Until now, CH4 emission in landfills was measured only for a limited time that is not sufficient to estimate representative emission data. The continuous measurement for CH4 emission in landfill is needed to get representative distributions for each variables in tier 2 method.
3. Results and Discussion
The previous studies related to GHGs emission inventories from waste were developed through three stages: (1) The first stage adopted the methodologies and default parameter values suggested by the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. (2) The second stage adopted the same methodologies offered by the IPCC Good Practice Guidelines, but applied country-specific parameters for some cases. (3) The third stage started to measure the emission rates of GHGs from landfills. As a result, the country-specific parameters were determined for most parameters used in the processes of emission calculations. Until now, the measurement of CH4 emission from landfill was made for one time to represent the emissions for several years. Since the emission of CH4 in landfills varies significantly even in a short time, continuous measurement of CH4 emission would be needed. In this study Monte Carlo analysis was applied to estimate CH4 emissions and associated uncertainties based on the limited avaliable data and suggested the standard operating procedures for the estimation of CH4 emissions and uncertainties.
Every energy policymaker would like to have an accurate method of assessing the quantitative impacts of future policies to address energy-related problems. Estimates of future changes to in a nation's energy balance, the expected environmental impacts of future energy sector developments, and the potential costs and benefits of different energy technology and policy options are desirable inputs to policymaking. Energy sector modeling helped to fill the needs for these kinds of information, and as such has been an important part of national energy planning in many countries for most of three decades. Analysts have been developing energy sector models since the mid-1970s, when governments instituted such activities on a major scale after the first OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil embargo. Large-scale computer models were a central part of the policy analysis and planning functions of the US DOE (United States Department of Energy), and were also used extensively from an early date in the major European countries and by the EEC. Recently, various attempts have been and are being made to incorporate and integrate environmental and economic sector considerations with energy sector modeling. There are three main types of energy policy modeling approaches; Macroeconometric models, CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) models, and energy-economy models. Top-down models use aggregate economic variables without consideration of specific details of energy end-use. Macroeconometric models analyze the short-term economic response to policy options based on the historical pattern of economic responses to similar stimuli. CGE models, a class of top-down model, are based on optimizing decisions of economic agents. CGE models include varying degrees of sectoral disaggregation and energy sector detail. CGE models are able to estimate the impacts of fuel substitution, as well as responses engendered by changes in the prices of fuels and other factors of production. Energy-economy models, or so called "bottom-up" models, are technology-based models founded on engineering relationships between use the use of technologies to provide energy services and the intensity with which fuels are used in those devices. These models span a very diverse range, from simple production function representations of the energy sector to extremely detailed engineering-economic energy sector models. Engineering models require detailed technological information, rather than behavioral functions and historic data for aggregated macro variables. Engineering models study the impacts of specific technological alternatives on energy use and other related parameters. The most remarkable advantage of this class of models is that they have the capacity to address at a more detailed sectoral and sub-sectoral level the implications of various energy policies on energy price, supply, transformation, and end-use. A variety of assumptions about technological change can be examined as well using these engineering-based energy-economy models. As a result, different levels of competition between technologies can be explicitly considered, leading many modelers to refer to energy-economy modeling approaches as "bottom up"approaches to energy demand modeling, as contrasted with the "top down" approaches employed in many aggregate economic analyses. The LEAP system that is used in the analysis described in this report is a scenario-based energy-environment modeling tool. LEAP's scenarios are based on comprehensive accounting of how energy is consumed, converted, and produced in a given region over a given time horizon, and under a range of alternative assumptions regarding demographic change, economic development, technological change, prices, and other parameters. With its flexible data structures, LEAP allows for analysis as rich in technological specification and end-use detail as the user chooses. Unlike top-down models, LEAP does not attempt to estimate the impact of energy polices on economic variables, such as employment and GDP, although such models can be run in conjunction with LEAP. In addition, unlike other energy-economy models such as economic equilibrium models and optimization models, LEAP does not internally generate optimum or market-equilibrium scenarios, although it can be used to identify least-cost scenarios. Important advantages of LEAP are its flexibility and ease-of-use, which allow decision makers to move rapidly from policy ideas to policy analysis without having to resort to more complex models. The primary role of energy modeling is to assist in the evaluation of the impacts of alternative policy options. The modeling analysis, therefore, should start from a clear understanding of the set of possible policy options to be analyzed, and of what the criteria are for comparing these options. An accounting and scenario-based modeling platform called the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP2000, recently updated as LEAP2005) is used to construct a multi-sectoral model of the energy system of the ROK. The data set for the ROK2005 model describes energy demand and transformation processes in the ROK in a fairly detailed manner, but is not quite, as of yet, as complete in its description of the costs and environmental aspects of the ROK's energy system. Energy demand in the ROK2005 model is divided by sector into five sectors: residential, industrial, commercial, transportation, and public & others. ROK2005also includes transformation modules for electricity transformation and distribution, electricity generation, district heating, town gas production, and LNG gasification. Fuels are used either to generate electricity, heat, and town gas, or to directly serve demand. The model structure is presented schematically below.
1. Research Purpose
In accordance with Article 4 and Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC), each Party to the Convention shall communicate to the Conference of the Parties(COP) through the national communication including a national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and a detailed description of the policies and measures that it has adopted to implement its commitment. As one of Parties to the UNFCCC, the Republic of Korea submitted the 1st and 2nd national communications in March 1998 and December 2003, respectively. According to UNFCCC reporting guidelines on national communications, Parties should give priority to policies and measures, or combinations of policies and measures, which have the most significant impact in affecting GHG emissions and removals. Policies and measures reported on should be those planned, adopted and/or implemented by governments. The presentation of each policy and measure also shall include, as appropriate, a quantitative estimate of the impacts of individual policies and measures or collections of policies and measures. Parties may also provide information about the costs and non-GHG mitigation benefits of policies and measures. This research, as a part of the second year research of "Basic Research for Preparation of the 3rd National Communication of the Republic of Korea under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change", has been conducted to analyse the UNFCCC reporting guidelines on national communications and to investigate the issues related to climate change mitigation by focusing on sectoral mitigation options, implementation barriers, methodological approaches for mitigation assessment and so on. In addition, by using a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model - KORETM_V.2, this research analysed the economic and environmental impacts and implications of policies and measures implemented to reduce GHG emissions from energy sector in Korea.
2. Summary
The UNFCCC reporting guidelines on national communications requires the comprehensive information of each country on national circumstances, GHG inventory and projections, policies and measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation, education and public awareness and so on. Especially, the information related to the policies and options for climate change mitigation through GHG abatement and sequestration should include the economic and environmental impacts and implications. Regarding the climate change mitigation, this research also analysed the sectoral mitigation options, barriers on implementation, ways to overcome the barriers and methodological approaches(models and tools) for mitigation assessment to estimate GHG reduction potentials and costs, as well as general information related to climate change mitigation. In addition, this research, by using the modified and upgraded KORTEM_V.2, conducted the quantitative analysis on economic and environmental impacts and implications by focusing on two policy options - (1) Expansion of Clean Fuel (Natural Gas) Supply, (2) Stand-By Power 1W Program - implemented to reduce GHG emissions from energy sector in Korea.
3. Research Results and Policy Recommendations
This study found that the development process for climate change mitigation policies and options must involve a diverse group of government agencies and non-governmental stakeholders. The development process should be based on well-defined objectives and should emphasize implementation and have a practical focus. It also should include aspects that aim to increase public awareness of climate change. The quantitative analysis, conducted by using CGE model, found that the expansion of clean fuels(such as natural gas) supply and the stand-by power 1W program have the potential to be the "no-regret' policy in mitigating climate change. In case of expansion of clean fuel supply, it is found to induce the fuel substitution from coal and heavy oil to gas, resulting in the meaningful energy conservation and GHG emission reduction as well as the positive impacts on macro-economy of Korea. Therefore, for the successful implementation of these policies and programs, this study emphasized the importance of strengthening of the current financial and institutional support and the cooperation between public and private sectors.
1. Research Purpose
As the Kyoto protocol entered into force early 2005, Korea views it necessary to develop a list of measures to address Climate Change across business, private and public sectors. National level response strategies require high level of awareness on the issue among the general public, which can be obtained by education and training programs and also education and training programs for those who will take charge of establishing and implementing climate change policies. Under the circumstance that Korea is anticipated to take (or forced to take) a emission reduction target comparable to some Annex B countries, it seems most appropriate for Korea to draw a national consensus on the matter by way of education, training and enhancing public awareness, and at the same time to secure Climate Change experts by offering professional education programs, who will eventually lead and implement Climate Change policies. This report intends to provide for the development of effective and practical education and training programs not only for general public, but also career professionals on the issue. The aim of the study is to help design a Korean model for education, training, and public awareness based on the experiences of domestic programs and foreign countries. In addition, the study is to assist policy-makers with their responsibility under the Article 6 of the UNFCCC(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) by identifying critical issues and suggesting ways to resolve expected problems associated with them.
2. Summary
Most countries including Korea in the world have implemented various projects on education, training and raising public awareness often tailored to fit for their own style of public administration and local environment.
Governments and government agencies are at the center of carrying out projects and programs related to education, training and raising public awareness on Climate Change through their web-sites, TV, telephone, radio and various events. Since 1990s mostly developed countries have made significant efforts to raise public awareness on Climate Change. However most programs were top-down rather than bottom-up so that programs related to Climate Change education, training and raising public awareness were only to be utilized as a mere government public relations tool. Thus most countries have almost identical programs and projects in terms of substance. They were different only on the surface and their effectiveness is at times in serious question. The main reasons are as follows:
�� Climate Change education, training and raising public awareness programs were in general not designed for effective communication with the general public and did not provide adequate information linking Climate Change and their everyday life.
�� Many Climate Change related programs are short-lived so that they tend so suffer from the lack of institutional memory.
�� There has been a communication gap between Climate Change experts and the general public so that outreach efforts often do not reach the general public.
�� The lack of funding and legal and institutional support are serious bottlenecks for most countries, in particular, developing countries. Since most financial supports are on short-term basis, it is difficult to design long-term plans which are necessary to get the long-term benefit.
�� Lastly there is no evaluation and monitoring mechanism for Climate Change programs related to education, training and raising public awareness .
Nevertheless, despite above mentioned issues, we have seen many successful cases of best practices regarding education, training and raising public awareness on Climate Change.
3. Research Results and Policy Recommendations
Reviewing Climate Change programs on education, training and raising public awareness of several countries, we were able to identify key issues and to bring out a short list of recommendations.
�� Climate Change programs on education, training and raising public awareness in Korea are not have firm foundation in terms of its legal basis and policy direction. It is imperative to establish a legal basis for the programs either by legislation or declaration.
�� Local governments have to play key roles in planning, implementing and evaluating programs on education, training and raising public awareness of Climate Change issues as they are better informed and supposed to handle grass-root projects more efficiently.
�� Education programs ought to be designed to take advantage of as most effective means of communication as possible. For example, soap opera could be instrumental to disseminate information to house wives in Korea while on-line games will be highly effective to educate the young.
�� More activities with direct implications on everyday life have to be included in the Climate Change programs like the Commuter Challenge in Canada.
�� Education, training and raising public awareness programs on Climate Change should be more pro-actively seeking opportunities rather than passively dishing out information. In case of Korea, internet portal sites for appliance prices comparison such as www.enuri.com or www.danawa.com could be an extremely useful vehicle for education, training and raising public awareness on Climate Change if they include information on energy saving and moreover GHG emission data so that consumers could make informed decision when making a purchase.
In addition there are a number of ways to improve our strategy for education, training and raising public awareness on Climate Change including establishment of a coordinating agency, incentivised professional education, and strengthening international cooperation with developing countries. In order to achieve our ultimate goals for sustainable development in the area of education, training and raising public awareness on Climate Change, we need to, first of all, carry out the nationwide survey on the Climate Change awareness to identify major target segment of the general public and areas of improvement.
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