| 摘要 | It has been widely recognized that bio-fuels should be utilized to substitute fossil fuels since the international price of oil has been fluctuating unpredictably. Bio-diesel and bio-ethanol are two representative bio-fuels. EU countries are the largest producers of bio-diesel and Brazil and the United States are the biggest producers of bio-ethanol. Major advantages of substituting bio-fuels for fossil fuels are increased energy security and environmental benefits even if some argue that the production of palm as a crude oil of bio-diesel in tropical regions could devastate tropical forest or generate huge amount of carbon dioxide. As more energy sources are available instead of relying on only oil for transportation fuels, a country will have more resilience to external energy crisis. Besides, bio-fuels can improve environmental quality as well as global warming since air pollutants and carbon dioxide are emitted much less from bio-fuels than fossil fuels.
Main purposes of this study are to investigate current status of bio-fuel promotion in Korea as well as world-wide, estimate potential and production cost of domestic production of bio-diesel using Korean Canola, analyze social benefits and costs of bio-diesel, and compare the net social cost of bio-diesel using Korean Canola with that of bio-diesel using imported crude oil(soybean).
Transportation fuel of Korea is absolutely dependent on imported oil from middle-east countries but unfortunately middle-east oil-producing countries are highly unstable regions. Therefore energy security of Korea has been threatened significantly. Besides, Korea is the 10th largest country in the world emitting green house gases. Recently Korean government has begun to promote bio-diesel production for the purpose of reducing the dependency on the imported oil in the transportation sector. In 2007, the total production of bio-diesel is expected to be 90,000Kl (5% of total diesel consumption in the transportation sector). However there are many obstacles to increase production of bio-diesel beyond BD5. They are objection from oil companies, technological problem of BD20 (blending Bio Diesel 20% with diesel 80%) in winter season, and restriction of subsidy on the imported crude oils. Given that crude oil for bio-diesel is produced from Korean Canola, the production cost of bio-diesel was estimated as $0.97/liter ($1=1,000won). Production cost of the Canola was estimated as $1.58, conversion cost of bio-diesel from crude oil was calculated as $0.55, co-product value of producing bio-diesel was estimated as $0.32, and government subsidy including agricultural subsidy and tax exemption was assumed as $0.84. Hence, the producer price of bio-diesel using Korean Canola will not be competitive in international bio-diesel market (mainly EU). Potential of domestic bio-diesel production was predicted as 0.6 ~ 7.4% of total diesel consumption depending on five scenario. Each scenario has a combination of different land conversion including set-aside land, barley areas, and two-crop areas. In the first scenario, only set-aside land (47,800ha) is converted to produce Canola, which leads to supply 10,800kL of bio-diesel. Second scenario supposes that set-aside land and unhulled barley area (56,800ha) are dedicated to cultivate Canola, which produce 128,000kL. Third scenario consists of set-aside land, unhulled barley, and rye areas (83,800ha), which results in 189,000kL. Fourth scenario adds two-crop areas to the third scenario (550,000ha), producing 1,128,775kL. Fifth scenario adds waste cooking oil to the fourth scenario, producing 1,318,615kL.
Next, social benefit/cost analysis was conducted based on three cases regarding government subsidy policy. First case assumed that government subsidizes $1,700/ha for farmers who cultivate set-aside land to produce Canola for bio-diesel. Government will provide a tax exemption option for bio-diesel providers using domestically produced crude oil(ex. Korean Canola) as well. Two items ($1.74billion) such as agricultural subsidy and tax exemption are regarded as social costs. Social benefits include reduction of imported oil, improvement of air quality, landscape, and reduction of CO2. Net social costs were estimated as $61million ~ 717million. Second case includes co-benefits of producing the bio-diesel from the Canola. They are incomes from selling oil cake from extraction of rapeseed oil, straw from harvesting the Canola, and Glycerin generating from making bio-diesel. The net social costs ranged between $24million ~ 287million. Third case assumes that the agricultural subsidy is given as general funds for securing agricultural industry and farmers. Thus, there exist net social benefits ranging between $32million ~ 864million. Only the third case is preferred to importing crude oil for the production of bio-diesel.
This study shows that it is very hard to substitute bio-diesel for fossil fuel by 7% of total diesel consumption in the transportation sector. Tremendous amount of subsidy should be offered to promote bio-diesel. Furthermore, there exist technological obstacles and lobbies from oil companies. In spite of all the above difficulties, it is necessary to enhance energy security of Korea and diversify energy sources as the international oil price fluctuates dramatically and climate change issue chokes Korean economy. Accordingly, the development of bio-fuels may be obligatory rather than optional! |
