| 摘要 | This occasional study was conducted to support the fourth session of the National Energy Advisory Committee. The committee session was held to prepare for the challenging issues of both trend-new high oil prices and the geopolitical instability of the Middle East.
Considering such background, this study pursues specific research purposes as follows. Firstly, it forecasts the short-term world oil price, based on the analyses of the world oil market and the geopolitical factors of oil exporting countries. Secondly, it estimates the short-term effects of the oil price on the national economy. Thirdly, it analyzes the world oil market from the mid- and long-term viewpoints of world oil supply and demand, geopolitics, and oil substitution. Fourthly, it delivers policy recommendations for the promotion of energy savings, overseas energy development, and the increased use of new and renewable energy in response to the trend-new high oil price.
World oil prices have been up and down around 60 and 70 dollars per barrel during the first quarter of 2006. This price situation is different from that of 1970s and early 1980s. The high oil price in the past was due to OPEC��s policy to cut its production while world oil consumption was declining. In contrast, the current high oil price is due mainly to an increase in world oil consumption while geopolitical issues such as Iran��s nuclear program induce more force into the market. In this sense, this study defines the current price as the "trend-new high oil price."
The world oil price is forecast to increase by 20 or 30% in 2006 because of difficult oil supply situation and prevailing political issues in the Middle East. When the oil price goes up by 30%, the national economy is expected to suffer a decrease in GDP by 0.5% points, an increase in the retail price index by 0.3% points, and an increase in the annual crude oil import bill by 1.24 billion dollars. In this case, total primary energy consumption is estimated to decline by 2.2% points, and oil consumption to go down by 1.7%.
It is understood that the current high oil price constitutes the trend-new high oil price in view of the long-term oil supply and demand condition. However, if the geopolitical situation of the Middle East would subside, the present level of the oil price would go down in the mid-term future, but no less than about 40 dollars per barrel, and then the long-term oil price would increase steadily.
Korea needs, therefore, multi-faceted approaches to cope with the trend-new high oil price. On the oil demand side, it should reduce its economic dependence on oil, and expand the use of alternative energy sources. On the oil supply side, it should enhance supply security by the promotion of overseas energy development. In parallel, the Korean government needs to strengthen resource diplomacy with oil exporting countries and international institutions to build preparedness for uncertainty in the world oil market. |
