| 摘要 | 1. Background and Objective
Economic paradigm of the Korean modernization has been based on the 'economic growth pole' theory. As the economy stabilized, however, social equity began to be more important issue than economic growth. In this context, balanced inter-regional development was brought up as major paradigm in Korean economy. Among the various strategies for balanced regional growth, local deployment projects of new and renewable energy (hereinafter, LDNRE) projects are preferred by central and local government so that every region could provide renewable energy using the resource endowment. The LDNRE projects may contribute to the regional economic development as well as foundation of balanced regional development. But practical steps should be considered in initiating those projects. The key steps are evaluation of the outcome of current projects, economic impact and social benefit of potential renewable energy, analysis of main problems, and action plans.
This study is the third phase of 'A Study on Identification and Cooperation of the LDNRE Projects for Balanced Regional Development' which has been conducted since 2004. The first study suggested that waste energy which takes large share of total new and renewable energy supply and is regarded as unfriendly and unacceptable to local communities could be swapped with other new and renewable energies which are acceptable to the communities. In the second year study, an analytic tool was applied to resolve social disputes in siting those unfavorable facilities. Based on the outcomes of analysis, several policy alternatives were suggested. The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the current LDNRE projects, estimation of economic impact and social benefit of potential investment demand on the new and renewable energy, and the establishment of action plan for LDNRE projects.
2. Major Findings
The LDNRE projects implemented so far were evaluated as follows.
Between 1996 and 2005 the Korean government invested 171.6 billion won on the LDNRE projects providing new and renewable energy by 34,143 TOE(0.7% of total new and renewable energy consumption in 2005). Wind and Solar PV energy were accounted for 26% of total investment. The biggest energy source supported by the LDNRE projects was wind energy (38%). For the production of renewable energy per unit of investment, waste and bioenergy were estimated as the most cost-effective sources, wind, small hydro, geothermal, solar thermal, and solar PV were following.
Kangwon-do was the highest region in the amount of subsidy from central government. Kwangju and Jeju-do were next. New and renewable energy was consumed highest in Chunnam, Kyounggi, Ulsan, Kangwon, and Chungbuk province.
Next, regional economic impact of bio and waste energy was estimated using input-output analysis. Bioenergy includes CHP with ligneous biomass, CHP with biogas from organic waste, and transportation fuel with biogas from sludge. Waste energy includes combustible wastes as fuel for incineration plants.
There are several reasons why only bio and waste energy are the subject of the analysis. First of all, waste and bioenergy yield net social benefits among new and renewable sources. Second, ministry of environment prohibited direct landfill of food waste and from 2011, organic sludge cannot be dumped into sea. Thus, each region should be prepared for those regulations. Third, recycling facilities of organic wastes such as fertilization and animal food have been declining due to the security and reliability of the recycled products.
Major results of input-output analysis are as follows.
-Ligneous biomass: Forward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Chungnam, and Kyongbuk provinces were 986 billion won, 755 billion won, and 619 billion won. Backward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Chunnam, Seoul were 835 billion won, 461 billion won, and 449 billion won. Value-added effects of Kyonggi, Seoul, and Kyongbuk were 320 billion won, 182 billion won, and 178 billion won. Employment effects of Seoul, Kyonggi, and Kangwon were 610, 388, and 297 persons.
-Biogas for electricity and heat: Forward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Seoul, and Kyongnam provinces were 359 billion won, 207 billion won, and 190 billion won. Backward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Seoul, and Kyongnam were 401 billion won, 335 billion won, and 176 billion won. Value-added effects of Kyonggi, Seoul, and Kyongnam were 137 billion won, 127 billion won, and 56 billion won. Employment effects of Seoul, Kyonggi, and Busan were 874, 302, and 124 persons.
-Biogas for transportation: Forward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Chungbuk, and Daegu were 171 billion won, 128 billion won, and 56 billion won. Backward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Chungbuk, and Chunbuk were 173 billion won, 160 billion won, and 96 billion won. Value-added effects of Kyonggi, Chungbuk, and Chunbuk were 60 billion won, 52 billion won, and 35 billion won. Employment effects of Seoul, Kyonggi, and Chungbuk were 154, 125, and 105 persons.
- Waste energy: Forward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Seoul, and Kyongnam provinces were 5,428 billion won, 2,744 billion won, and 1,442 billion won. Backward linkage effects of Kyonggi, Seoul, and Kyongbuk were 4,272 billion won, 3,662 billion won, and 1,281 billion won. Value-added effects of Kyonggi, Seoul, and Kyongnam were 1,553 billion won, 1,481 billion won, and 421 billion won. Employment effects of Seoul, Kyonggi, and Daegu were 7,789, 2,697, and 900 persons.
-Value-added effects of Chungbuk, Kangwon, and Daegu provinces were estimated as taking 2.13%, 1.6%, and 1.59% of gross regional products. Hence, bio and waste energy could potentially drive regional economic growth in those regions.
- Ligneous biomass based CHP plants would produce 661,802TOE, biogas CHP plants would produce 157,663TOE, CBG buses using compressed biogas would consume 339,347TOE, and incineration plants using flammable wastes would provide 1,025,112TOE of heat. Total quantity of energy provided by bio and waste energy would amount to 2,183,924TOE, which takes 44.8% of total new and renewable energy in 2005. Crude oil substitution effect would be about 809.3billion won and carbon dioxide reduction effect would be about 198.5billion won.
Fourth, current issues and action strategies of LDNRE are suggested as following.
- Moral hazard, less effort to innovative R&D, over-dependency to central and local governments were observed in the practice of new and renewable projects. Thus, government subsidy should be excluded for the projects supported by feed-in-tariff(FIT). In the long run, each province should introduce renewable portfolio standard (RPS).
- Local deployment projects should be separate from new and renewable energy program so that they would focus on the demonstration projects for the application of domestic technology.
- Local energy projects should have region-specific and large scale demonstration of new and renewable energy.
- Government should support and give priority to the regions that make efforts to enhance the portion of new and renewable energy.
- Regular and steady supports are essential since local projects function as education, advocation of new and renewable energy. Thus, they should show the potential reduction in GHG emissions and energy efficiency improvement, and potential export industry.
3. Conclusion and policy implication
The evaluation of the LDNRE projects shows that the amount of investment is not in proportion to the consumption of new and renewable energy. Solar PV, wind, and geothermal energy require high installation costs when compared to bio and waste energy. Hence, provinces focused on the former sources would produce less new and renewable energy than those invested on the latter sources. When based on the amount of new and renewable energy production, Chunnam, Kyonggi, Ulsan, Kangwon, Chungbuk would have higher probability of industrialization of new and renewable energy.
On the other hand, bio and waste energy were evaluated as the most cost-effective sources. In this context, each region should consider the utilization of bio and waste energies. As mentioned in identifying the issues, some local autonomies apply to the LDNRE projects in order to receive more fund or others do for the purpose of introducing heavy and large industry as a basis of economic growth. However, the main purpose of the LDNRE projects are extension of new and renewable energy production in the cost-effective way, optimizing social welfare. What is worse, in the future, it will be more difficult to trade wastes across borders of regions due to the strict regulation on the management of waste. As an alternative to the recycling of the waste, this study recommends energy utilization of wastes.
The economic impact analysis of the bio and waste energy investment shows that these energy industries may be growth engines in less developed provinces. More specifically, Kangwon, Chunnam, and Chungbuk provinces would economically benefit from the construction of biomass CHP. Chungbuk, Jeju, and Chunnam provinces would achieve higher economic growth through the investment on the biogas CHP using organic waste. Furthermore, Chungbuk and Chunbuk provinces would have a better economic opportunity through the biogas-based transportation business using compressed biogas from organic sludge.
This study recommends that local autonomies in cooperation with the central government should implement larger scale, region-specific, and continuous LDNRE projects. Besides, the willingness to provide more new and renewable energy should be the first principle in the selection of project proposals. Especially, bioenergy and waste energy facilities are recognized as unfavorable ones to local communities so that 'Biomass Energy Committee' should be organized to resolve controversial issues and perform effective business practices. Sharing of external costs, shifting to PIMFY facility, and appropriate compensation system were suggested as solutions to the disputes on siting of unfavorable facilities. Another consideration is to mix between a top-down and a bottom-up approach in decision-making of LDNRE projects. |
