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来源类型Research papers
规范类型报告
Research for improving the management system of energy efficiency policies in industry
S. K. Lee; Y. H. Ahn
发表日期2007-12-31
出版年2007
语种英语
摘要1. Research Purpose To increase the effectiveness of energy efficiency policies, it is necessary to conduct ex ante or ex post evaluation on the effects of the policies. It, however, is not an easy task to assess the net quantitative effects of the policies correctly on the micro and macro levels. Although several methods, including microeconomic, statistical, econometric analysis, have been developed and applied, we do not have an universally accepted methodology to evaluate the policies yet. This research aims at improving quantitative evaluation on energy efficiency for the Korean manufacturing sector. To the aim, we conduct two main works. First, we try to combine the decomposition method and econometric analysis for the extension of the decomposition method. Since two approaches approach the energy efficiency problem in the different perspectives, it is believed that it is hard to reconcile the results of two approaches. We believe that it is a time to perform the econometric analysis on the determinants of energy intensity effect, and tried to compare the result of decomposition method and that of econometric analysis. Second, we estimate the rebound effects in the Korean manufacturing sector. One of the most common criticisms of energy efficiency policies and programmes is that they overstate energy savings by ignoring the direct rebound effect or takeback effect. Rebound effects refers to the increase in the demand for energy services when the cost of the service declines as a result of technical improvements in energy efficiency. 2. Summary In the results of energy intensity effect analysis with the econometric method, it is found that the increase in the energy price results in the improvement of energy intensity effect. In enconometric analysis of energy efficiency, the coefficient of a time trend measured as a proxy of energy efficiency is significant and has a negative effect on the energy consumption. The semi-elasticity of a time trend is -0.02 in a short-term period and -0.04 in a long term period. This finding implies the energy efficiency improves very slowly over time. In addition, the directions of energy efficiency improvement in the decomposition method are consistent with those in the econometric analysis in four industries. This finding indicates that two methods may be in complementary cooperation for the analysis of energy efficiency. The rebound effect has been estimated for the Korean manufacturing sector using time series data covering the period 1981-2005. The model used for the analysis is the static logit cost share function where nonlinear iterative seemingly unrelated estimation procedure is applied. Additionally, asymmetric price effects are allowed for in the model estimation in order to extract an estimate of the rebound effect which is found to be approximately 51% at most. This result may represent an upper bound for rebound effects as the estimate is probably upward biased due to factors like the fast growth of output in the sector, the use of aggregate data, and the nature of the covered period when the energy price lasted very low. Therefore, the true size of the rebound effect is likely to be much less than 51% for the Korean manufacturing sector. 3. Research Results & Policy Suggestions The experimental attempt to combine the decomposition method with the econometric method gives us a encouraging outcome, even not satisfactory one. Especially, the complementary approach will give us a new clue for the energy efficiency analysis. As seen in the comparison of results of two methods, it is confirmed that two approaches are not incompatible in the analysis of energy efficiency study. Therefore, it is needed the efforts to seek the complementarity between two methods for the enhancement of academic and policy implications. We have seen the existence of the rebound effect in the Korean manufacturing sector. When the objective is to lower or stabilize energy consumption due to, e.g. environmental arguments, policy makers should mind that energy saving from technological improvement can be eroded in part due to the rebound effect. Therefore, if manufacturing growth and energy consumption is to be further disconnected, this may involve some form of energy taxes or other policies that keep the cost of energy services unchanged as long as further technological improvements are lowering the effective prices of energy services.
URLhttp://www.keei.re.kr/web_keei/en_publish.nsf/by_report_year/B596114FE4E2961A492573E6002AE131?OpenDocument
来源智库Korea Energy Economics Institute (Republic of Korea)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/322430
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
S. K. Lee,Y. H. Ahn. Research for improving the management system of energy efficiency policies in industry. 2007.
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