| 摘要 | 1. Research Purpose
Pursuant to Article 4 and Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC), all Parties to the Convention shall communicate to the Conference of the Parties(COP) through the national communication. The preparation and submission of the national communication have a significant meaning to Korea which, as one of the leading developing countries and the member of OECD, faces an increasing pressure from international society to contribute to the global efforts for greenhouse gas(GHG) emission reduction. In other words, the national communication which shall contain information on national inventories, steps taken or envisaged to implement the Convention and measures to mitigate climate change and facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change can be utilized as the source of public relation about activities and contributions of Korea in addressing the climate change issue. Therefore, it is necessary for Korea to prepare and submit the next 3rd national communication with the collection of the related information and the in-depth analysis and research.
In light of this, Korea Energy Economics Institute(KEEI) has initiated the three year(2004-2006) research project titled "Basic Research for Preparation of the 3rd National Communication of the Republic of Korea under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change". To improve quality and transparency of the national communication, this research project has been organized to conduct the basic and comprehensive research on national GHG inventory, policies and measures, emission projection and the total effect of policies and measures and so on. This report, as the last year report of the three year project, contains the results of analysis on the methodological improvement for GHG emission projection and for emission reduction impact analysis of various policies and measures in energy, agriculture and livestock sectors.
2. Summary
This report has been divided into methodological improvement of (1) GHG emission projection and (2) emission reduction impact analysis of policies and measure in energy, agriculture and livestock sectors.
For GHG emission projection of energy sector, The LEAP (Long-range Alternatives Planning System) model, a scenario-based energy- environment modelling tool, is developed. Based on comprehensive accounting of how energy is consumed, converted and produced in a given region over a given time horizon and under a range of alternative assumptions regarding demographic change, economic development, technological change, prices, and other parameters, it generates the extensive information and implication on GHG emission projection of energy sector.
On the one hand, analyses on methodological improvement of GHG (especially methane and nitrous oxide) emission projection for agriculture and livestock sectors also have been conducted by improving the way to enhance the quality of basic database and information reflecting the specific characteristics of agriculture and livestock sectors.
Regarding analysis on GHG emission reduction impacts of policies and measures in energy sector, the LEAP model has been utilized to generate GHG emission reduction potential of various policies measures such as (1) expansion of natural gas supply, (2) stand-by power 1W program, (3) expansion of compact car supply, (4) mandatory standards for building insulation and energy-efficient design, (5) high efficiency equipment certification program, (6) expansion of district heating supply, and so on. The analysis has generated the meaningful policy implications in terms of emission reduction potential of each policy and of policy portfolio to tackle the climate change issue in energy sector.
The analysis for agriculture and livestock sector on emission reduction impact of various policies and measures also has been carried out by improving the analytical methodologies for each sector. For example, the new projection on activity data and information and the functional forms for GHG emisison estimation have been adopted. The improved methodologies have generated the more transparent and reliable results on emission reduction effects of various policies in agriculture and livestock sectors.
3. Research Results and Policy Recommendations
The UNFCCC reporting guideline on national communications requires the comprehensive information of each country on national circumstances, GHG inventory and projections, policies and measures and their impacts for climate change mitigation and adaptation, education and public awareness and so on. Especially, the information related to GHG emisison projection, the policies and options and their impacts on GHG abatement and sequestration should include the transparent and reliable economic and environmental implications.
This report, which contains the results of the last year research project of the three year(2004-2006) program titled "Basic Research for Preparation of the 3rd National Communication of the Republic of Korea under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change", has been evaluated to accomplish their purposes and targets.
First, analyses on GHG emission projection have made a correct diagnosis on the current problem of the methodological and data reliability for long-term forecasting of GHG emisison in energy, agriculture and livestock sectors. They also have provided the direction and approach to be taken to further improve the quality and transparency of GHG emission projection in those sectors.
Second, the modelling and methodological analyses on emission reduction impacts of various policies and measures for energy, agriculture and livestock sectors have provided the idea how further research on these ares should be addressed. |
