G2TT
来源类型Research papers
规范类型报告
Development of Integrated Model and Economic-Environmental Effect of Climate Policy
D. W. Roh; S. Y. Kim
发表日期2008-12-31
出版年2008
语种英语
摘要�� �� 1. Research Purpose Developed countries will have a quantified committment or mitigation actions and developing countries will have a mitigation actions in post-2012 period according to AWG-LCA(Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Actions under the UNFCCC). Korea has to take a commitment when Korea is classified as developed country, or Korea has to take mitigation actions under the developing country group. So, Korea has to take mitigation actions regardless of country's classification. As a result, Korea has to prepare the cost-effective strategy to reduce greenhouse gases. The main purpose is to set up the integrated model of bottom-up and top-down model, and to evaluate the economic and environmental effect of low-carbon policy and measures on greenhouse gas emissions and national economy. Bottom-up model which evaluates the the effect of climate policy on the sectoral mitigation potential and mitigation cost will be integrated into top-down model which evaluates the impacts of low-carbon policy on the economic growth and employment. Korean government can establish the effective strategy for low-carbon economic system. climate status of classification does not have commitment for greenhouse gas reduction in the 1st period(2008-2012). However, Korea is advanced developing country as a member of OECD, and has the high ranking in terms of greenhouse gas emission. Korea has the choice to reduce greenhouse gas emissions voluntarily prior to the post-Kyoto commitment. The purpose of this research is to estimate the reduction potential of greenhouse gas in Korean petroleum refining industry. MARKAL is used to estimate reduction potential in 2001-2041. The mitigation options are technological options, economical options and other options. Technological options include new technologies which can contribute to energy saving and greenhouse gas reduction. Carbon tax and energy tax are included in economic options, and fuel switch from B-C to natural gas is included as pther option. Also arbitrary reduction target for refining industry in 2001-2041 is set, and the cost effective strategy is analyzed. The refining industry can utilize the result of this research to establish action plans for energy saving and greenhouse gas reduction. Government can use the result to choose the cost effective measures to achieve the reduction target. The industry may utilize the marginal abatement cost estimate of greenhouse gas for a decision making criteria for utilize Kyoto mechanism. 2. Summary The energy consumption of oil refining industry in 2004 is 5,132 thousand TOE, which increased 1.9% per annum since 1997(4,837 thousand TOE). The share of off-gas, B-C and electricity is 97% of energy consumption, and the remaining share is composed of naphtha, diesel, petroleum cokes. The energy efficiency in refining industry has declined since 2000 such that consumption per crude oil throughputs increased from 5.16TOE/thousand bbl in 1997 to 6.21TOE/ths.bbl in 2004. The CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in refining industry increased from 3,739 thousand TC in 1997 to 4,358 thousand TC in 2004. CO2 emission from electricity consumption increased most rapidly among fuels such that CO2 emission increased from 337 thousand TC in 1997 to 698 thousand TC in 2004 and the share of CO2 from electricity consumption increased from 9.0% in 1997 to 16.0% in 2004. The CO2 emission intensity per crude oil throughput icreased from 4.29TC/ths.bbl in 1997 to 5.27TC/ths.bbl in 2004 due to the increased consumption of electricity and the increased capacity of cracking and desulfurization facilities. Three kinds of options to reduce greenhouse gas enission in refining industry are considered in this research. Technological option includes new technologies which can contribute to energy saving and greenhouse gas emission reductions. Most of the new technologies would be deployed in industry after 2011. Some technologies of which the cost is lower than that of current technology can contribute to the greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Economical options include carbon tax and energy tax which can be introduced after 2010. Other option includes the fuel switch from B-C to natural gas. The potential of technological options for energy saving and greenhouse gas reduction is greater than that of economical options. The economical options can not contribute to greenhouse gas emissions reduction since it can not induce the fuel switch and technology choice. The main factor for small potential of economical option is that the share of energy cost is tiny compared with the share of investment and O&M cost. And the technolgical option is cost effective since the cost of some technologies is lower than that of current technologies. The annual economic potential of greenhouse gas emission reduction is 6%(365 thousand TC annually) on average in the study period(2001-2041) compared with the baseline emissions. The economic potential can be achieved by the introduction of new technologies. The marginal abatement cost of greenhouse gas is -$1,375/TC for economic potential. This result implies that the petroleum refining industry can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 6% without additional cost compared with baseline emissions if the industry keeps the cost-minimization principle and there is no market failure. The fuel switch from B-C to natural gas can contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions by 331 thousand TC annually on average which is additional to the economic potential. The marginal abatement cost of fuel switch is $32/TC. The cumulative potential of new technology and fuel switch is around 12%(696 thousand TC) compared with baseline emissions. The technological potential of the most efficient technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emission is around 7%(448 thousand TC annually) compared with baseline emissions, but the marginal abatement cost of technological potential is $2,391/TC. The technological potential can contribute additional greenhouse gas emiss reduction by 7%, however hugh cost is necessary for the technological potential. The cost to achieve the arbitrary target of 12.7% reduction(766 thousand TC annually) compared with baseline emissions would be $119 million and the marginal abatement cosy of the reduction target is $161/TC. The most cost effective strategy to achieve the target is to introduce new technologies. New technologies can reduce by 6% of emissions without cost addition, and fuel switch can reduce additional 5% of greenhouse gas emissions with modest cost. The remaining reduction of around 1% can be achieved by technological options of which cost is very high. 3. Research Results & Policy Suggestions The marginal abatement cost will increase rapidly beyond some potential since the cost of the technologies is very high compared with that of technologies in other industries. The emission reduction beyond the arbitrary target of 12% reduction needs hugh cost. The refining industry may consider other options to achieve the target over 12% reduction. The electricity generation by waste heat recovery is not included as an option to reduce greenhouse gas emission even though it is resource saving option. If the waste heat recovery generation option is included in the study, the economic potential may be increased and the marginal abatement cost may be declined compared with the result in this study. More diverse options to reduce CO2 emissions would be included to estimate the reduction potential in oil refining industry. The specific target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in refining industry would be included in the future study. The target may be decided based on the reduction potential in Korean refining industry and the comparison with the greenhouse gas emission intensity in refining industry of the developed countries. Korean government can consider the voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions prior to the post-2012 commitment. 245 pages, 33 refs., 89 tabs., 14 Figs., Language: Korean
URLhttp://www.keei.re.kr/web_keei/en_publish.nsf/by_report_year/250901C37FB37D0049257556002D49B9?OpenDocument
来源智库Korea Energy Economics Institute (Republic of Korea)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/322467
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
D. W. Roh,S. Y. Kim. Development of Integrated Model and Economic-Environmental Effect of Climate Policy. 2008.
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