| 摘要 | ��
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1. Research Purpose
Along with the drastic increase in oil prices, a controversy has broken out over peak oil, which means irreversible declines of global crude oil productions. It all started from the argument issued by some geologists that once oil production reaches its peak before 2010, it will be reduced. This assertion is drawing much attention from the public as it coincides with the spiraling oil prices at present. In particular, when the first half of 2008 saw a drastic increase in international oil prices, some pointed out what is called "peak oil psychology" as one of the triggering factors for such occurrence. Meanwhile, as public concern spurs issues over peak oil, there is also a growing interest in the development of non-conventional oil, such as oil sand and extra-heavy oil, as an alternative for conventional oil. In this regard, it is necessary to closely examine the issues in relation to peak oil and the possibility of non-conventional oil development.
This study examines the debate revolving around peak oil and analyzes the movement of non-conventional oil development, with the aim of deriving their implications. For an examination of the debates related to peak oil, this study summarizes the assertions through literature survey and classifies them into three categories, namely: (1)peak oil has reached, (2)peak oil is variable, and (3)the discussion of peak oil is insignificant. Following this, the concept of non-conventional oil and its characteristics were explained. Canada��s oil sand and Venezuela��s extra-heavy oil were chosen as the objects of analysis, and their deposits, production technology, and movement of development investment were looked into. Finally, the economic aspects of non-conventional oil, such as the supply costs of oil sand and extra-heavy oil as well as their development circumstances and development possibility, were also investigated. Finally, the implications of the development strategy for non-conventional oil were derived.
2. Major Contents and Results
The issues related to peak oil were categorized into three main streams. First, there is an assertion that the production peak will take place in the near future, as determined using statistical models and preconditions identical to those developed by Hubbert. Second, there is an assertion that the advent of peak oil is significantly variable, and that there is little possibility of an advent in the short term. The assertion used Hubbert��s statistical model but allowed diversity in the input data and preconditions of the model. Third, there is an assertion that the analysis of peak oil from geological aspect is meaningless, and that an economic approach must thus instead be adopted.
In the previous studies, it is assumed that controversies over the advent moment of peak oil originate from a few primary hypotheses. Determination of the onset of peak oil depends on four primary hypotheses: resources in place, recovery efficiency, average rate of oil consumption, and state of depletion at peak. However, the probable reserves of conventional oil are estimated to be within the 6~10 trillion barrel range, and those of non-conventional oil within the 2~8 trillion barrel range. In terms of recovery efficiency, it is estimated to be within the 22~55% range. As for the increase in oil consumption, several institutes project an annual average of 0~2%. The depletion at the production peak is estimated to be about 50%, but this has a flexible application. As shown in this paper, if the result of the analysis of the onset of peak oil has the limitation that its result is variable depending on its precondition, it is plausible to prospect the production peak from an economic viewpoint rather than from a geological viewpoint. In other words, if the scale of oil resources may fluctuate according to the price, it is insignificant to discuss the advent moment of the production peak based on uncertain geological data.
Given that there remain a great deal of various resources on the earth(e.g., non-conventional oil) other than conventional oil, the increase in exploration chances and recovery efficiency, thanks to the impact of high oil prices and technology development, may defer the advent of peak oil. Therefore, it may well be argued that true problem does not lie in the subsoil but above ground. All that has to be done is to improve exploration techniques, and enhance the accessibility of the upstream sector and step up investments.
Next, although non-conventional oil has a meager share in the oil supply, oil consumption countries as well as oil producing countries expand their investment on non-conventional oil along with high oil prices. A wide range of factors influence the development investment in non-conventional oil such as oil sand and extra-heavy oil, and a mining method requires differentiated consideration. The most critical variables, however, are the production cost, transportation cost, and selling price of bitumen. Generally, the cost of bitumen has been determined to be 50~60% of the cost of light crude oil. According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers(CAPP), the recovery method of bitumen influences its operation and supply costs. Nonetheless, supposing that the price of light crude oil remains at a 55% range and that the crude oil prices, on the basis of West Texas Intermediate(WTI), stand at US$45~55, the develop- ment of oil sand is assessed as economically feasible. Interestingly enough, Canada��s National Energy Board(NEB) estimated in 2006 that only the extraction cost required for natural bitumen following the exploitation process of oil sand stands at a US$6~13 range. Moreover, the inclusion of the capital cost accompanied by the use of exploration and mining equipment will increase the production cost of oil sand to US$13~22 per barrel. If the reforming cost of bitumen fraction into synthetic crude oil(SCO) will be added here, the supply cost of oil sand at the final stage will reach US$34-37 per barrel. Subsequently, it is viewed that the development of oil sand has secured economic efficiency since 2003, when the global oil prices began to rise.
The oil sand output of Canada is expected to increase to two million barrel per day by 2010 and to three million barrel per day by 2015, making up 60~70% of its total crude oil output. This suggests that the development of oil sand offers economic efficiency and sustainability. Unlike other oil producing countries, Canada enjoys political and social stability, offering little development risk and relatively low royalty and taxes. Its well-developed infrastructure in the vicinity of oil sand mining areas facilitates smooth transportation. Moreover, the fact that America, its neighboring market, assures smooth selling is another merits well. It appears, however, that investments in technology and environment are a prerequisite to addressing various issues for the sake of a drastic increase of output. The prerequisites, in particular, are investment in the reduction of sulfur dioxide and green gas emissions and efficiency increase in oil sand exploitation, bitumen extraction, and underground recovery.
Venezuela��s extra-heavy oil development method involves the production of synthetic crude oil by upgrading, not through orimulsion. Its yield rate of synthetic-crude-oil production reaches 87~95%, higher than Canada��s 81~90% oil sand production. Venezuela��s extra-heavy oil production cost is about half Canada��s bitumen production cost. This is because Canada��s oil sand requires large energy consumption in the process of bitumen extraction and viscosity reduction, while Venezuela��s extra-heavy oil requires little energy in its extraction due to its low viscosity and burial at a high temperature.
The Venezuelan government demarcates 27 mining areas, apart from the existing development projects, and looks for joint ventures to take part in. As its extra-heavy oil supply is expected to complement the global conventional oil supply, a great number of global oil companies are expected to participate in the project despite the Venezuelan government��s intensifying influence and restriction on the taking of shares in its oil resources. If OPEC regards Venezuela��s extra-heavy oil in Orinoco Belt to be crude oil, Venezuela will become the country that owns the largest amount of oil reserves in the world. Of course, political risks such as deteriorated terms of contract and intervention of the state-run PDVSA are expected to have a negative impact on the development investment.
3. Policy Suggestions
It is inevitable to think that investment in non-conventional oil is susceptible to certain risks, foremost of which is the future oil prices. The second biggest risk is the renewed resources nationalism and energy hegemony. As the skyrocketing oil prices prompt the premium of mining lot in oil development and increase the returns obtained by the existing investors, the oil producing countries introduce countermeasuring mechanisms, such as the imposition of windfall profit taxes and limiting the share holding ratio, to prevent contractors from gaining excessive profits. The third biggest risk is an increase in the exploration and development cost. High oil prices increase the number of exploration projects, which also put upward pressure on the cost of equipment chartering and labor. This will ultimately be translated into an increase in the unit cost of production, like a vicious cycle. Considering the risks associated with the development of non-conventional oil, the issues regarding oil price fluctuation and the increase in exploration and develop- ment costs should be addressed through financial measures like hedging, or by linking to other projects. In terms of political risks, it is desirable that while utilizing the government��s resource diplomacy, "packaged resources development," which connect our competitive industries(e.g., IT, plant, social infra- structure) with foreign resources development projects, be promoted.
125 pages, 33 refs., 26 tabs., 74 Figs., Language: Korean |
