| 摘要 | ��
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Bio-energy is an apt solution to the international energy crisis, domestic agricultural difficulty and global climate change, as bio-energy can substitute fossil fuels and be produced domestically.
Through this method, domestic farmers who have suffered great losses from the FTA can be provided with a new means of earning income. In addition, because bio-energy does not produce carbon
emissions, it can also improve the global environment.
In Korea, bio-diesel is the most developed form of bio-energy. The Korean government has tried promote the spread of bio-diesel since 2000. As a part of this effort, the government has proceeded
on a three-year bio-diesel crop project in 2007, in which a bio-diesel crop �� rapeseed �� would be grown in an area of 1500 ha all over the nation. If this project turns out successfully, then rapeseed
growth will be encouraged through further government programs. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the effects of increasedenergy crop production on the national and local economy before
the government program gets started. By forecasting, it is possible to come up with appropriate measures for opening the agricultural market and addressing energy and climate problems.
The main objective of this study is to analyze what the spillover effects of the domestic bio-diesel crop project per industrial sector will be, on the national economy. Using multi-industrial and
multi-regional analyses, this study aims to find out how the spillover effects of expanding bio-diesel crop production will impact other industries and in the process, also distinguish regional effects to
arrive at a conclusion. For the multi-industrial and multi-regional analyses, we draw three possible scenarios based on transportation fuel consumption forecast, government bio-diesel supply schedule, bio-energy localization ration and domestic farm land areas.
The focus of the main scenario is the 820 million liter of bio-diesel supply in 2015. It is expected that 30% of 820 million liter of bio-diesel will be supplied from the domestically-grown rapeseed. Therefore, it is necessary to secure 130,000 ha of farmland for the cultivation of rapeseed. The analyses in this study regarding the bio-diesel diffusion and nationalization plan using the industrial model are two-fold: multi-industrial and multi-regional. These analyses correspond respectively to both the advantages and disadvantages of the domestically grown bio-diesel crop. The advantage of the domestic crop is its increasing production, while its disadvantage is decreasing barley production. To elaborate further on the disadvantage, or the multi-regional analysis, however, barley's decreasing production can be measured by the relative decrease in barley cultivation area amid an expansion in the overall rape cultivation land by scenario.
In the case of the main scenario, the increased value from rapeseed production is equivalent to 185.6 billion won and the decreased value from barley production is equivalent to 43.3 billion won.
On the other hand, from the multi-industrial analysis, we find that the pure effect is positive and equivalent to 270.9 billion won, in the case of the main scenario. The positive effect from increasing
rapeseed production overrides the negative effect from decreasing barley production. By industrial sector, the agricultural-fisheries sector was benefitted the most from the increase in rapeseed
production. Next in line were the manufacturing industry, real estate industry, finance industry, personal service industry, wholesale industry, and residential and food industry �� in this order. To
examine the region most affected by the growth of rapeseed, on the other hand, multi-regional spillover analysis was conducted. It was discovered that Pyungtaek was the most positively affected city,
followed by Yangju, Paju and Suwon.
From the two analyses, we identified that the positive spillover effects from domesticating bio-diesel crop differs by region and industry. Therefore, to successfully domesticate bio-diesel crop, a
plan considering the positive spillover effects and a distinguished method to boost domestic production are necessary. Nonetheless, because the spillover calculations of domestic bio-diesel crop production using the industrial model are mainly analyzed in this study, this does not include the effects of bio-diesel production, fossil fuel substitution, and environmental improvement. If those effects were included, domestic bio-diesel crop's effect on the economy would increase greatly.
The government increasingly needs to devise a strategy in regard to these positive effects. The strategies can be divided into two categories: encouragement of rapeseed growth and expansion of the bio-diesel market. Detailed methods of the first category of encouraging rapeseed growth include formulating policies to reduce the gap between domestic barley price and rapeseed price,
improving species of rapeseed, farm mechanization, and expanding rapeseed farming areas. For the second category, detailed methods to expand the bio-diesel market include introducing a tax break for bio-diesel, increasing the minimum bio-diesel mix ratio, and developing bio-diesel for power generation or heating. Out of these two, the government needs to choose an appropriate strategy to lead
domestic bio-diesel crop production to success.
120 pages, 20 refs., 31 tabs., 12 Figs., Language: Korean |
