| 摘要 | ��
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1. Research Purpose
The negotiation process(AWG-KP) for post-2012 commitment of Annex I countries and Long-Term Cooperation under the UNFCCC (AWG-LCA) is expected to be terminated in 2009. Korea should reduce GHG emission based on the Bali Action Plan which is the base of AWG-LCA. Korea has to reduce GHG emission cost-effectively to keep sustainable economic development.
The purpose of this research is to develop the regional analytical tool and to estimate the effect of low-carbon strategy. Bottom-up regional model(regional MARKAL) has advantage to estimate MAC(marginal abatement cost) for each sector, and Top-down regional model(CGE) is strong to estimate the economic effect of low-carbon strategies. National economic system is divided into 6 regions as Soodo(Seoul Metropolitan area), Chulla(South-West of Korea), Chungchung(Central area), Kwangwon(Northern area), Kwongnam(South-East), Kyungbook(East).
2. Summary
The major options to reduce GHG emission in MARKAL are new technology(or process), fuel switch, low-carbon material, CHP, CCS, electricity production from renewable energy, high-efficient appliances, hybrid car, electric car, and fuel cell car. Carbon tax and cap-and-trade are included in CGE as low-carbon strategy.
The national GHG mitigation potential in 2020 is 17.1%(112,434 ths. tCO2) compared with BAU emission(656,507 ths. tCO2) based on bottom-up model estimation. Conversion sector has the largest share(49.1%) of national reduction potential, commercial sector has the second largest share(26.2%), transport residential sector have 10..0% and 9.62%, the industrial sector has the smallest share(5.0%) due to high energy efficiency.
The average cost to reduce 5% of BAU emission in 2020 is -$1,083/tCO2, and the average cost to reduce 10% is -$285/tCO2. The mitigation potential to reduce without additional cost(that is, the average cost is minus) is 13%. The mitigation potential in 2020 is 15% of BAU emission Under the current carbon price range($20-30/tCO2). Conversion and transport sector have the largest and second largest share of this potential. As a result, conversion sector and transport sector have the cost-effective mitigation potential.
Soodo region(45%) has the largest share of national GHG mitigation potential in 2020. Kyungnam has the second largest share(18%), and Kangwon has the smallest share(6%). Soodo has the largest potential(44,467 ths. tCO2), and Kyungnam has the second largest potential. As a result, population-dense regions have the largest potential to reduce GHG emission.
The estimation result based on CGE model, the average cost to reduce 5% of BAU emissions in 2020 is $0.5/tCO2 using cap-and-trade, and $0.33-$1.07/tCO2 using carbon tax. The average cost to reduce 10% of BAU emission is $0.83/tCO2, and $0.44-$1.43/tCO2. The cost estimation of CGE is different from the estimation result of MARKAL. The options to reduce GHG emissions without additional cost(that is, with minus average cost) are included in BAU in case of CGE. On the contrary, these options are not included in BAU in case of MARKAL. So, the cost difference may be derived from the definition of BAU.
3. Research Results & Policy Suggestions
The most cost-effective sectors and regions to reduce GHG emissions in 2020 are conversion and transport sectors, and Soodo and Kyungnam region. CCS has the highest share(98%) of mitigation potential in conversion sector. The government has to invest in the development of CCS technology such that CCS can be applied in cenversion sector and industry before 2020. The mitigation potential to reduce GHG emission in residential and commercial is large, but the average cost is high. The policy to reduce the cost in these sectore are necessary.
In case of Soodo and Kyungnam region, non-industrial sectors like transport, residential and commercial sector have the largest potential to reduce GHG emission. The policy to reduce GHG in these regions should be focused on non-industrial sectors.
There is a big difference in MAC(marginal abatement cost) estimation between bottom-up and top-down model. One method to reduce the gab is to include the options of which marginal cost should be included in BAU in CGE model.
311 pages, 32 refs., 114 tabs., 30 Figs., Language: Korean |
