| 摘要 | ��
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1. Research Purpose
At the Conference of Parties (COP) 15 Copenhagen, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference, climate change systems after 2012 were under negotiation. The past climate change negotiations had been underway for two bipolar groups: 1) the developed countries (Annex I nations) which bear obligation to reduce greenhouse gases: and 2) the developing countries (Non-Annex I nations) under no obligation. Korea thus has been able to stay away from greenhouse gas reduction. However, since the COP 13 Bali, climate change negotiations have evolved to include developing countries in efforts to curtail greenhouse gases. Accordingly, the Korean government announced three greenhouse gas emission scenarios on 3 August 2008 and determined on 16 November 2009 to aim at lowering gas emissions 30% from the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over the mid term (by 2020). Nevertheless, greenhouse gas reduction always involves economic costs. Therefore, in this study, we intend to analyze economic impact of greenhouse gas reduction on the national economy by using a computable general balance model in order to provide recommendations for establishing effective measures.
2. Summary
In this study, we applied a top-down economic model (a computable global endogenous growth model) reflecting Korea's economic, energy and environmental systems, and analyzed how various greenhouse gas emission scenarios would affect the Korean economy. We conducted our analyses mainly on the three scenarios published by the Presidential Committee on Green Growth.
We differentiate our model used in this study from the one used by Kim Suyi (2008) since we implemented the new greenhouse gas reduction technology in our model. Specifically, our new greenhouse gas reduction technology was based on the studies by Glouder and Schneider (1999), and Gerlagh and Zwaani (2003). Because new technologies build up through R&D investments which require costs, investment costs to develop a new technology should likely boost GDP losses. On the other hand, once accumulation of new technologies and production of alternative energy climb enough, it is also likely to reduce greenhouse gases without GDP losses. Hence, the model of this study covers a possibility that GDP increases while greenhouse gases are cut down over the long term although it may lead to GDP losses over the short-to-mid term due to investment costs.
Policies aiming at reducing greenhouse gases include direct regulatory policies such as the standardization and target management system, but economic systems using the market mechanism (such as the carbon tax and carbon trading scheme) have been proven more effective. Thus, we attempted an empirical analysis on the carbon tax and carbon trading scheme herein. For this study, we excluded irreplaceability of information and administrative & executional expenses from the analysis. We also assumed carbon trading schemes through distribution with consideration (auction) were identical to the carbon tax. As carbon trading schemes are divided into those with consideration (auction) and without consideration based on the method to allocate initial carbon credits, we carried out the analysis while focusing on the carbon trading schemes without consideration, those with consideration, and the carbon tax. For auctioned carbon trading schemes, utilization of auction income (carbon income) significantly changed economic ripple effects. Given measures to return such tax income, we categorized policies into those to lower consumption tax, earned income and corporate tax, and to support R&D investment in order to analyze economic effects.
3. Research Results and Policy Suggestions
The following summarizes policy implications based on the results from our analysis in this study. First, it is more efficient to distribute carbon credits with consideration and collect taxable income than to distribute carbon credits without consideration. This is because it is not always more efficient to transfer rights to carbon credits to the private sector and allow the private sector to invest in or consume carbon credits than to use the carbon credits at the government's expenses.
Second, it appears to generate the least amount of economic losses stemming from greenhouse gas reduction if carbon credits were auctioned off and the auction income was reinvested in new greenhouse gas reduction technologies. This leads to a significant difference in taxation from other policy measures such as corporate, income and consumption tax reductions. Therefore, reinvestmemt in new technology development is the most desirable method to return tax revenues. Nonetheless, economic losses resulting from technology development may depend on the speed of technology development, and the respective effects appear over the long term. If the obliged reduction amount is large and new technologies are implemented at a slow rate, the government will inevitably incur GDP losses for a long time. As development and penetration of new technologies require a tremendous amount of expenses and time, it is imperative to postpone a large amount of reduction responsibilities until new technologies are fully penetrated.
Third, carbon trading schemes or greenhouse gas reduction policies through a carbon tax result in substantially different effects in each industry. Since production is likely to decline owing to reduction of greenhouse gases even in sectors such as electric & electronic and transportation machinery sectors as well as the sectors that have conventionally consumed a lot of energy (such as coal & petrochemical, steel and non-metal sectors), long-term countermeasures for these sectors must be established. As these sectors have vast impact on the upstream sectors and significant exposure to the national competitiveness, countermeasures must protect the industrial competitiveness.
Fourth, given the current level of greenhouse gas reduction mainly for the Annex I nations, greenhouse gas reduction efforts are expected to lead to more economic burden in Korea than in other countries. This is attributable to high contribution of manufacturing sectors with large energy consumption (such as the heavy and chemical sector) to Korea's industrial structure. In order to flexibly respond to greenhouse gas reduction policies over the long term, the sectors should switch to businesses with low energy consumption.
Last, the climate change negotiations are presently divided into the developed countries (Annex I nations) and developing countries (Non-Annex I nations). The developed countries have obligation to lower greenhouse gases whereas the developing countries are relatively free from such obligation. However, in order to globally reduce greenhouse gases, the developing countries also need to carry out their own differentiated reduction efforts. Consequently, we empirically suggested in this study that Korea's economic burden would relatively diminish if China - the country with the largest greenhouse gas emissions in the world - participated in lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Going forward, Korea thus has to conduct research on more aggressive greenhouse gas reduction behaviors than other developing countries with large greenhouse gas emissions do (particularly, China and India).
157 pages, 21 refs., 38 tabs., 36 Figs., Language: Korean |
