| 摘要 | ��
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1. Research Purpose
Since the hikes in oil prices during 1970, the Korean government has conducted various energy policies to gain efficiency in oil usage and reduce dependence on oil in energy consumption. In particular, the government carried out the master plan for efficient and rational energy use from 1993 for three times and, as a result, the share of oil in primary energy consumption has declined since 2000 and energy efficiency has increased in the transportation sector.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the macroeconomic effects of oil prices shocks on the Korean economy, by constructing a Bayesian DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model which considers the recent changes in the energy consumption structure. Up until now, most studies on the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks in Korea have depended on stylized tools such as SEM (simultaneous equation model), VAR (vector autoregression) model, or CGE (computational general equilibrium model). Thus, this study will give a new perspective on the effects of oil price shocks and provide significant policy implications.
2. Summary
In this study, the macroeconomic effects of the shocks to various energy policies conducted in Korea are also considered, together with oil price shocks. Thus, the DSGE model includes technology shocks, oil price shocks, and shocks to energy policies as exogenous driving forces. The shocks to energy polices considered here indicate shocks to oil usage and shocks to energy taxes. The shocks to oil usage mean the energy polices to reduce oil consumption, such as no driving on a day of the week system and elevator stops in even intervals. On the other hand, the shocks to energy taxes are shocks to distortionary taxes on energy prices.
Thus, using the linearized DSGE model, the effects of these driving forces on the Korean business cycle is examined. Also, after conducting counterfactual exerecises on the effects of long-term changes in the energy consumption structure which include the reduction in oil use as a share of energy consumption and improvement in oil efficiency, policy implications to make the economy more energy-efficient is derived based on the results. The theoretical model used here is a neoclassical DSGE model applying oil usage proposed by Finn (2000). The model is estimated by Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for the Korean economy.
3. Research Results and Policy Suggestions
With respect to the propagation mechanism of the exogenous driving forces captured by the estimated DSGE model, the qualitative features of the impulse responses are in line with those obtained in the literature and economic theory. In the case of oil price shocks, they generate recessionary pressures as well as a reduction in oil consumption. On the other hand, shocks to energy policies, which reduce oil consumption, result in opposite consequences to oil price shocks, decreasing oil consumption.
The effects of shocks to distortionary taxes on oil prices are examined via counterfactual exercises. Impulse response functions show that an increase in the distortionary taxes on oil prices causes negative wealth effects and, as a consequence, these shocks decrease consumption, hours worked, output, investment and energy consumption. In particular, if a rise in distortionary taxes on oil prices is persistent, it leads to a persistent and large negative wealth effects. Thus, the negative macroeconomic effects of shocks to distortionary taxes are persistent and large. Also, counterfactual exercises show that long-term changes in the energy consumption structure such as the reduction in oil use as a share of energy consumption and enhancement in oil efficiency would mitigate the contractionary effects caused by oil price shocks.
These results indicate that improvements in energy consumption structures led by oil efficiency gains not only alleviate depressionary effects of oil prices shocks, but also cause positive macroeconomic effects. Moreover, together with these long-term changes in energy consumption structures, shocks to energy polices to reduce oil usage also have the affirmative effects on the economy, inducing reductions in oil consumption. Moreover, as shocks to energy taxes which are conducted to reduce oil consumption causes negative effects on the economy, it would be better to actively conduct a public campaign to reduce oil consumption than exerting tax polices.
The authority now sets up the fourth master plan for efficient and rational energy use and promotes the details. The fourth master plan aims to achieve sustainable and green growth of economy via an efficient energy consumption structure with low carbon emissions. For this goal, the authority promotes technological innovations in energy usage and the market structure in which the energy efficient and pro-environment technology can be vitalized.
However, it is important to understand what is the main barriers to private economic agents to adopt and develop high energy efficient technologies, in order to draw their spontaneous participation to the plan. Thus, this study surveys to the group of energy experts for these barrier from the point of consumers and engineers. The results show that from the point of engineers, who develop the energy efficient technology, the most serious difficulty to prevent high-efficient energy technologies is its marketability. For the consumers, it is economic uncertainty occurring from adapting the technologies. Fortunately, as the fourth master plan for efficient and rational energy use pursues and contains the details to promote high-energy efficient market structure and spread these technologies, it is expected that this difficulty can be easily resolved. It seems that the fourth master plan well prepares institutional, and financial supports for consumers to adopt high- efficient energy technologies. However, it contains insufficient supports for the engineers. The survey results indicate that the second barrier for the engineers is the absolute shortage of manpower, which leads to develop high-efficient energy technologies, and insufficient financial support from the government. Thus, it seems urgent that the authority prepares various policy measures and financial supports to resolve this problem. Together with foundation of colleges for high-efficient energy technologies, financial and institutional supports for R&D of small venture firms may be the useful policy to solve this problem.
108 pages, 55 refs., 5 tabs., 23 Figs., Language: Korean |
